Today markets will probably continue to digest details from yesterday’s FOMCmeeting as the schedule mainly contains tier 2 data, although rate decisions in Norwayand Switzerland will also be in focus.
UK retail sales due for release at 10:30 CET are expected to fall back in May falling0.5% m/m after a very strong rise in April of 1.3% m/m. At 6.9%, the annual increasein UK retail sales rose to its highest level in 10 years and private consumption isgenerally on a strong path.
ECB vice president Vitor Constancio will speak in Athens at 13:15 CET under thetitle ‘Monetary Policy Challenges in the Wake of the Crisis’. The speech might givemore insight to the engine room of the ECB and the tool kit it is looking at.
US initial jobless claims at 14:30 CET are likely to fall slightly to 313k from 317kthe previous week. The current low level of claims reflects subdued rate of layoffs.
The Philadelphia Fed survey for June is expected to fall slightly to 14 from 15.4 inMay. It is still quite a high level reflecting robust growth in US manufacturing.
Following the latest ECB policy changes, today’s rate decision by the Swiss NationalBank (09:30 CET) may also draw some attention. However, we expect it will keep itstarget for 3M Libor unchanged. Furthermore, the SNB is likely to reiterate that aflexible balance sheet is the primary monetary policy tool and that it will intervene inthe FX market if the Swiss franc appreciates and EUR/CHF declines to 1.20.
Norges Bank is expected to stay put at today’s rate decision and focus will thus likelybe on the new monetary policy report.
Read the full report: FX Daily