EUR/USD remains in consolidation mode just ahead of the recent low at 1.3503 and we suspect the market is pausing ahead of this years low at 1.3476 and the 2012-2014 uptrend at 1.3454. This is considered to be a key break down point for a slide to 1.2750. The intraday charts are now giving conflicting signals. Rallies will find initial resistance at 1.3570/85 ahead of 1.3677/90 (early June high and Fibo). There is scope for 1.3775 prior to the resumption of the downmove.
Our overall view remain bearish while we are below 1.40, the Elliott wave count on the daily chart is suggesting that rebounds should not exceed the 1.3775 zone.
Current position: Short 1.3577. Recommended trade:. stop 1.3605, cover 1.3520
Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Market remains on course for the 1.3439 2012-2014 uptrend
Medium term (1-3 months): Looking for 1.3826/1.4000 to cap. Target is the 1.2755 July low (long term forecast).
CB