Daily Market Technicals

EUR/USD managed a marginal brief spike above the previous initial resistance at $1.3583 and the falling daily trend line off May monthly highs, but the lack of follow through so far is of some concern. Overall, while the 21-DMA caps bears will continue to initially target the 2014 low. Bulls continue to look for close above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to the $1.3664-75 region where the 200-DMA is located.

RES 4: $1.3664 200-DMA

RES 3: $1.3610 21-DMA

RES 2: $1.3602 Hourly resistance June 10

RES 1: $1.3587 Hourly resistance June 17

LPRICE: $1.3558

SUP 1: $1.3552 Alternating hourly support/resistance

SUP 2: $1.3512 Low June 12

SUP 3: $1.3502 Low June 5

SUP 4: $1.3477 2014 low Feb 3

The move to fresh 2014 and 5 year highs has so far lacked follow through which is of some concern to the bullish case. Initial support remains on the hourlies at $1.6943 from Friday but bears really need to see a close below the $1.6922 hourly support from early Friday morning in Asia to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and hint at a deeper correction back towards layers of support noted in the $1.6687-1.6840 region.

Lower daily lows following last week’s dip towards the 200-DMA are suggesting a break higher but the Y102.14-42 region remains key to the immediate direction for USD/JPY. Layers of resistance are noted in this region including 55 & 100-DMA’s. Bears will look for this region to cap to see further tests of the 200-DMA with a close below targeting Y100.75-80. A break topside and a close above Y102.42 would see focus shift to the Y102.80-103.02 region.

ERU/JPY made marginal fresh 4 month lows Monday before recovering with a relatively bullish close. Initial support is noted on the hourlies at the Y138.29 level that previously capped with bears needing a close below to retain bearish pressure. Overall bulls need to see a close back above the 21-DMA to confirm a break of the 200-DMA and hint at a bigger bounce targeting the 140.09-94 region.

Cracks look to be appearing in the down trend with Monday’s move to the lowest level since Sept 2012 being reversed with a bullish close that pressured initial resistance. Daily studies remain very O/S and due a correction but bulls need to see a close above Gbp0.8007 to ease bearish pressure a little while a close back above Gbp0.8032 is needed to see focus shift back to the 21-DMA. Bears need fresh 2014 lows to reconfirm pressure.