EUR/USD last week charted a low of 1.3586 that was accompanied by a TD perfected set up. These are warning signals that the market is likely to consolidate. Having broken recently below the 200 day ma at 1.3643 any rebounds are likely to remain tepid, currently they are indicated terminate circa 1.3680. Beyond a small rebound we would allow for further losses to the 1.3476 2014 low en route to the 2012-2014 uptrend at 1.3425. While below 1.3740/45 the market is directly offered, and only above here would delay our outlook for a deeper retracement to 1.3838 but no more than 1.3907.
Current position: Short at 1.3955. Recommended trade: Move stop to 1.3745, target at 1.3500.
Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Market remains on course for the 1.3425 2012-2014 uptrend
Medium term (1-3 months): Looking for 1.3826/1.4000 to cap. Target is the 1.2755 July low (long term forecast).
