After beginning the new week below the 200-DMA ($1.3640) and looking a little heavy, the pair closed back above the 200-DMA on Monday which eased the bearish pressure a little. Initial support is now noted on the hourlies at $1.3635 but bears will look for a break to fresh lows and a close below the 200-DMA to reconfirm bearish pressure. Bulls look for a close above the 100-DMA to place lower levels in doubt and above the 55-DMA to confirm.
RES 4: $1.3775 High May 12
RES 3: $1.3764 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.3738 100-DMA
RES 1: $1.3688 Hourly resistance May 22
LPRICE: $1.3655
SUP 1: $1.3635 Hourly support May 26
SUP 2: $1.3615 Low May 23
SUP 3: $1.3576 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: $1.3563 Low Feb 12
GBP/USD is looking to drift a little higher but is struggling to cleanly clear the 21-DMA ($1.6861). The $1.6920 resistance level that halted last week’s rally is key resistance with bulls needing a close above to confirm a shift in focus back to the 2014 high. Bears will continue to target the rising daily trend line around $1.6762 while $1.6920 caps. Bears also look for a break of $1.6735 to confirm a break of key layers of support and target $1.6555.
RES 4: $1.6996 2014 High May 6
RES 3: $1.6960 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.6920 High May 21
RES 1: $1.6875 Hourly resistance May 23
LPRICE: $1.6856
SUP 1: $1.6848 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 2: $1.6802 Low May 20
SUP 3: $1.6782 Hourly support May 16
SUP 4: $1.6762 Rising daily trend line
USD/JPY recovered lost ground to end the week marginally above the 21-DMA (Y101.90) following the dip below the 200-DMA on Wednesday. The close above the 21-DMA eased the previous bearish pressure a little but bulls now look for a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish hopes and retarget 2014 highs. Last Friday’s low is key support to start the new week with bears needing a close below to shift focus back to closes below the 200-DMA.
RES 4: Y103.39 High Apr 7
RES 3: Y103.02 High May 2
RES 2: Y102.47 100-DMA
RES 1: Y102.20 55-DMA
LPRICE: Y101.95
SUP 1: Y101.85 Low May 26
SUP 2: Y101.58 Low May 23
SUP 3: Y101.34 Hourly support May 21
SUP 4: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
The recovery from the 200-DMA combined with correcting oversold daily tech studies is a worry for bears. The rally so far has now seen the Y139.33 resistance level broken with bears now needing a close back below the Y139.12 previous resistance to ease the current bullish pressure. While the Y139.12 level supports, bulls are now targeting the layers of resistance noted in the Y140.23-00 region which includes key moving averages.
RES 4: Y14100 55-DMA
RES 3: Y140.78 100-DMA
RES 2: Y140.32 Hourly resistance May 13
RES 1: Y140.23 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y139.22
SUP 1: Y139.12 Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 2: Y138.60 Low May 23
SUP 3: Y138.26 200-DMA
SUP 4: Y136.23 2014 low Feb 4
EUR/GBP continues to consolidate at the lower end of last week’s range despite O/S daily studies. Bulls continue to look for a close above Gbp0.8119 to confirm an easing of bearish pressure and a close above the 21-DMA to shift focus back to the Gbp0.8239-57 region. Bears are currently focused on fresh 2014 lows and overall are targeting sub Gbp0.8000 levels while the 21-DMA caps.
RES 4: Gbp0.8191 Low Feb 28 now resistance
RES 3: Gbp0.8162 21-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8159 High May 19
RES 1: Gbp0.8119 Previous 2014 Low now resistance
LPRICE: Gbp0.8097
SUP 1: Gbp0.8083 2014 Low May 22
SUP 2: Gbp0.8035 Low Dec 10 2012
SUP 3: Gbp0.8005 Low Nov 21 2012
SUP 4: Gbp0.7960 Monthly low Nov 8 2012
