We expect another small decline in German ZEW expectations in May after it hastrended downwards during the first few months of 2014. On the other hand, thecurrent assessment component has improved so far in 2014 and our forecast is that itwill continue in May.
In the US we expect retail sales to improve further in April after they rebounded inMarch following a rough start to the year with bad weather having a major impact onthe sales. Our estimate is an increase of 0.2% m/m, as some payback is likelyfollowing the very strong reading in March.
ECB’s Lautenschlaeger and Weidmann speak today. They are both consideredhawkish and it will be very interesting to hear whether they support Draghi’scomment given at the ECB press conference last week. So far ECB members have notargued against the comment that there is ‘consensus about action’, although some saidit is too early to speculate about easing in June.
The energy market will carefully monitor the nuclear talks between Iran and the West,which begun in Vienna yesterday and are scheduled to run until Friday. The 20 Julydeadline for a new deal is approaching, which means concrete details of a morepermanent deal may be put on the table this week.
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Danske Bank