EUR/USD has thus far failed to break the keyresistance at 1.3967. However, the short-termtechnical structure is positive as long as thesupport at 1.3865 (05/05/2014 low, see also therising channel) holds. An initial support lies at1.3906 (11/04/2014 high).
Today’s ECB meeting should increaseintraday’s volatility.
In the longer term, EUR/USD is still in asuccession of higher highs and higher lows.However, the recent marginal new highs(suggesting a potential long-term rising wedge)indicate an exhausted rise. As a result, we see amedium-term limited upside potential,especially given the key resistance at 1.3967(13/03/2014 high) and the increasing overboughtconditions.
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