We expect German factory orders to send another signal of solid GDP growth in Q1,as we forecast an increase of 0.4% m/m in March after it rose 0.6% m/m in February. This follows as the new order component of German manufacturing PMI was wellabove 50 in March.
In our view French industrial production for March could surprise on the upside, asthe manufacturing PMI new orders rose by 4 index points in March and went above50.
We estimate that US unit labour cost has increased 2.5% q/q in Q1, as data indicate arise in compensation of employees.
Fed’s Yellen testifies before the Congress’s Joint Economic Committee. She is likelyto reiterate the message that, while the economy is expected to recover following theweak Q1, there is plenty of slack in the labour market and inflation is far below theFed’s target. The Fed can thus remain patient before raising rates once the QEtapering is over later this year.
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Danske Bank