Daily Market Technicals

The move higher continues to stall ahead of the $1.3905 Apr 11 high with the relatively bearish close Thursday of some concern to bulls. A close below $1.3840 is needed to confirm an easing of the previous bullish pressure whereas a close below $1.3815 sees bears targeting a retest of the $1.3771 low. For now a broad $1.3771-1.3905 range is dominating with a break of either side likely to yield the next decent move.

RES 4: $1.3948 High Mar 17

RES 3: $1.3905 High Apr 11

RES 2: $1.3889 High May 1

RES 1: $1.3873 Hourly resistance May 2

LPRICE: $1.3860

SUP 1: $1.3840 Alternating hourly support/resistance

SUP 2: $1.3815 Previous hourly resistance now support

SUP 3: $1.3771 Low Apr 30

SUP 4: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967

The move to fresh 2014 and 5 year highs ensures bullish focus dominates with bulls targeting the 2009 high at $1.7042. The only negative for the bullish case are O/B studies. Initial support remains at $1.6857 on the hourlies with bears needing a close below to ease the current bullish pressure. Overall, a close below the $1.6762 Apr 23 low is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target the rising daily channel base around $1.6652 today.

USD/JPY appears to be content trading sideways within a broad Y101.86-102.78 region. Bulls look for a break topside that then sees immediate focus shift to the Y102.92-103.10 region and overall focus return to the Apr monthly high at Y104.13. Bears are targeting a break lower that sees focus shift back to the key Y100.75-101.32 region with the 200-DMA noted at Y101.01. A close below the 200-DMA was last seen in Oct 2013.

EUR/JPY continues to oscillate within the narrowing triangle increasing pressure and risk of a decent breakout. Bears need a close below the Y140.99 Apr 28 low to confirm a break of the downside with immediate focus then shifting to the Y139.96-140.02 region. A break of the topside would see immediate bullish focus shift to the Y143.45-78 region. It should be noted that layers of support are clustered in the Y140.99-141.42 region.

The move back above the previous initial resistance at Gbp0.8217 lacked follow through with overall focus remaining on a move lower that is targeting the Gbp0.8158-98 region. The lower Bollinger band comes in at Gbp0.8191 today and may limit downside follow through. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8257 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift to the Gbp0.8270-84 region where the 55 and 100-DMA’s are located.