The sharp move lower Wednesday again managed to dip below the 21-DMA before recovering to close above with the result being a triple daily top around the $1.3879 level. Initial support is now noted on the hourly timeframe at $1.3855 with bulls needing a close below to ease the pressure on the $1.3879 level and below $1.3815 to shift focus back to the $1.3771 low. Bulls favour a break higher that targets the $1.3905-67 region while $1.3815 supports.
RES 4: $1.3948 High Mar 17
RES 3: $1.3911 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: $1.3905 High Apr 11
RES 1: $1.3879 High Apr 28 & 29
LPRICE: $1.3871
SUP 1: $1.3855 Hourly support Apr 30
SUP 2: $1.3815 Previous hourly resistance now support
SUP 3: $1.3771 Low Apr 30
SUP 4: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967
The move to fresh 2014 and 5 year highs ensures bullish focus continues to dominate with bulls now focused on a test of the 2009 high at $1.7042. Initial support is now noted on the hourly timeframe at $1.6857 with bears needing a close below to ease the current bullish pressure while a close below the $1.6762 Apr 23 low is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and target the rising daily channel base around $1.6646 today.
RES 4: $1.7107 Low Oct 20 2008
RES 3: $1.7042 2009 high Aug 5
RES 2: $1.6925 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.6900 2014 high Apr 30
LPRICE: $1.6875
SUP 1: $1.6857 Hourly support Apr 30
SUP 2: $1.6806 Low Apr 30
SUP 3: $1.6777 Low Apr 28
SUP 4: $1.6762 Low Apr 23
The correction lower Wednesday resulted in a close below the 21 and 55-DMA’s with bulls now needing a close back above to ease the renewed bearish pressure that has seen focus swing back to the Y101.86 Apr 17 low and then the key Y100.75-101.32 support region. Overall bulls need a close above the Y102.78 Apr 29 high to regain control and open up the door for a retest of the Y104.13 Apr monthly high. Daily studies remain O/B and add weight to the bearish case.
RES 4: Y103.10 High Apr 8
RES 3: Y102.93 100-DMA
RES 2: Y102.78 High Apr 29
RES 1: Y102.38 21 & 55 DMA’s
LPRICE: Y102.26
SUP 1: Y102.03 Low Apr 30
SUP 2: Y101.86 Low Apr 17
SUP 3: Y101.51 Rising daily trend line
SUP 4: Y101.32 Low Apr 10
EUR/JPY continues to oscillate within the narrowing triangle, increasing the risk of a decent breakout. Bears need a close below the Y140.99 Apr 28 low to confirm a break of the downside with immediate focus then shifting to the Y139.96-140.02 region. A break of the topside would see immediate bullish focus shift to the Y143.45-78 region. It should be noted that layers of support are clustered in the Y140.99-141.45 region including the key moving averages.
RES 4: Y143.45 High Apr 2
RES 3: Y142.78 Triangle top off Dec monthly high
RES 2: Y142.47 High Apr 29
RES 1: Y142.15 High Apr 30
LPRICE: Y141.84
SUP 1: Y141.21 Triangle base off Nov monthly low
SUP 2: Y140.99 Low Apr 28
SUP 3: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 4: Y139.96 Low Mar 28
The move back above the previous initial resistance at Gbp0.8217 lacked follow through with overall focus remaining on a move lower that is targeting the Gbp0.8158-98 region. Bulls need a close above Gbp0.8257 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift to the Gbp0.8270-84 region where the 55 and 100-DMA’s are located. It is worth noting the pair has not closed above the 100-DMA since closing back below in late Mar
RES 4: Gbp0.8284 100-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8270 55-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8257 High Apr 29
RES 1: Gbp0.8241 21-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8215
SUP 1: Gbp0.8198 Low Apr 22
SUP 2: Gbp0.8191 Low Feb 28
SUP 3: Gbp0.8158 2014 Low Feb 17
SUP 4: Gbp0.8085 2013 Low Jan 3
