The sharp move lower from the $1.3879 level Tuesday leaves a double daily top in place and combined with the relatively bearish close sees focus shift lower to the key $1.3779 support. The euro is hovering tentatively around the 21-DMA with bulls needing a close back above $1.3840 to ease the bearish pressure. A break below $1.3779 sees the $1.3673-1.3727 region targeted with the 100-DMA ($1.3727) and lower 21 day Bollinger band ($1.3718) in this region
RES 4: $1.3905 High Apr 11
RES 3: $1.3879 High Apr 28 & 29
RES 2: $1.3840 Hourly support Apr 28 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3815 Hourly resistance Apr 30
LPRICE: $1.3804
SUP 1: $1.3795 55-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3779 Low Apr 9, 38.2% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967 SUP 3: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967
SUP 4: $1.3673 Low Apr 4
The lack of topside follow through combined with overbought daily studies is of some concern to bulls. In saying that, bears still need to see a close below layers of support noted in the $1.6749-77 region to hint at a deeper correction that initially targets the rising daily channel base off Nov monthly lows ($1.6639). Bulls are initially targeting fresh 2014 highs and then the 21 day upper Bollinger while $1.6777 supports.
RES 4: $1.6907 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.6878 Monthly high Nov 16 2009
RES 2: $1.6858 2014 high Apr 28
RES 1: $1.6847 High Apr 29
LPRICE: $1.6823
SUP 1: $1.6777 Low Apr 28
SUP 2: $1.6762 Low Apr 23
SUP 3: $1.6749 High Apr 16 now support
SUP 4: $1.6683 55-DMA
Tuesday’s rally traded above the previous key resistance at Y102.72 but the lack of follow through combined with the Slow Stochastic looking at a bearish cross from modestly O/B levels is of some concern. Bears still need a close below the Y102.23 support to confirm break of the 55-DMA (Y102.38) and see focus return to the Y101.86 Apr 17 low. Bulls now need to see a move above Y102.78 and a bullish close to target the Y103.10-104.13 region.
RES 4: Y103.73 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y103.10 High Apr 8
RES 2: Y102.94 100-DMA
RES 1: Y102.78 High Apr 29
LPRICE: Y102.34
SUP 1: Y102.23 Hourly support Apr 28
SUP 2: Y101.86 Low Apr 17
SUP 3: Y101.50 Rising daily trend line
SUP 4: Y101.32 Low Apr 10
The move higher was short lived with the failure ahead of the triangle top combined with correcting daily studies seeing focus return to the triangle base as pressure for a break out continues to build. A break of the triangle base would confirm a break of the 21, 55 and 100-DMA’s and see immediate focus shift lower to the Y139.96-140.02 region. Bulls now need to see a close above the Y141.80 resistance to ease the bearish pressure
RES 4: Y143.45 High Apr 2
RES 3: Y142.81 Triangle top off Dec monthly high
RES 2: Y142.47 High Apr 29
RES 1: Y141.80 Hourly resistance Apr 30
LPRICE: Y141.33
SUP 1: Y141.05 Triangle base off Nov monthly low
SUP 2: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 3: Y139.96 Low Mar 28
SUP 4: Y139.14 61.8% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
EUR/GBP managed a brief spike above the 21-DMA (Gbp0.8243), falling channel top and Gbp0.8252 before correcting sharply lower and closing below the Gbp0.8217 support. This level now becomes initial resistance with bulls needing a close above to ease bearish pressure and a close above Gbp0.8257 to hint at a bigger bounce. Bears are now firmly focused on a move lower that targets the 2014 low with a close below Gbp0.8191 confirming.
RES 4: Gbp0.8286 100-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8269 55-DMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8257 High Apr 29
RES 1: Gbp0.8217 Alternating daily support/resistance
LPRICE: Gbp0.8207
SUP 1: Gbp0.8198 Low Apr 22
SUP 2: Gbp0.8191 Low Feb 28
SUP 3: Gbp0.8158 2014 Low Feb 17
SUP 4: Gbp0.8085 2013 Low Jan 3
