EUR/USD continues to find support ahead of the 21-DMA with bears needing a close below $1.3779 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see immediate focus shift to the $1.3676-1.3722 region where key moving averages and Fibonacci supports are located. The $1.3863 resistance level remains key with bears retaining the upper hand while it caps. Bulls need a close above $1.3863 to regain control and target $1.3905-67.
RES 4: $1.3905 High Apr 11
RES 3: $1.3863 High Apr 14
RES 2: $1.3833 Hourly support Apr 17 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3822 High Apr 18
LPRICE: $1.3810
SUP 1: $1.3796 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3779 Low Apr 9, 38.2% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967
SUP 3: $1.3766 55-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3967
The move to fresh 2014 highs last week lacked follow through and was followed up with a relatively bearish close. When combined with very O/B daily studies this is of some concern for a bullish continuation. In saying that, bears now need a close below $1.6749, which confirms a break of the rising daily channel base, to confirm an easing of bullish pressure and see immediate focus shift to the 21-DMA.
RES 4: $1.6961 Rising daily channel top
RES 3: $1.6878 Monthly high Nov 16 2009
RES 2: $1.6868 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.6842 2014 high Apr 17
LPRICE: $1.6795
SUP 1: $1.6768 Rising daily channel base
SUP 2: $1.6749 High Apr 16 now support
SUP 3: $1.6713 Hourly support April 15 & 16
SUP 4: $1.6679 21-DMA
USD/JPY is finding support ahead of the 55-DMA which has provided the platform for the pair to take out the previously key Y102.47-50 resistance region. Bears now need a close below the 55-DMA to ease the bullish pressure that is dominating and now initially targets the layers of resistance in the Y102.95-103.10 region, which include the 38.2% Fibo of the 104.13-101.32 move. A close below the 55-DMA sees bears initially targeting Y101.80.
RES 4: Y104.13 High Apr 4
RES 3: Y103.95 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 2: Y103.10 High Apr 8
RES 1: Y102.95 100-DMA
LPRICE: Y102.55
SUP 1: Y102.34 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y101.80 Hourly support Apr 16
SUP 3: Y101.32 Low Apr 10
SUP 4: Y101.20 Low Mar 14
Pressure is starting to build on the key Y141.96 level with the EUR/JPY have begun building a base following the close above the 100-DMA on Wednesday. Layers of support are noted in the Y139.96-141.24 region and combined with correcting O/S studies are adding support to the bullish case. Bulls need a close above Y141.96 to see immediate focus shift to the falling Triangle top around Y143.04 and overall focus to the Y145.69 Dec 2013 monthly high.
RES 4: Y143.45 High Apr 2
RES 3: Y143.04 Falling Triangle top off Dec monthly high
RES 2: Y142.89 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Y141.96 Alternating daily support/resistance
LPRICE: Y141.65
SUP 1: Y141.24 100-DMA
SUP 2: Y140.57 Rising Triangle base off Nov monthly low
SUP 3: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 4: Y139.96 Low Mar 28
The correction lower following the 55-DMa failures ensures focus remains on the Gbp0.8158-0.8205 support region with the only negative for a bearish continuation being oversold daily studies. Bulls now look for a close above the Gbp0.8338 Apr 18 high to ease the bearish pressure and a close above the 55-DMA to target layers of resistance in the Gbp0.8295-0.8336 region.
RES 4: Gbp0.8277 55-DMA
RES 3: Gbp0.8268 High Apr 16
RES 2: Gbp0.8252 Alternating support/resistance
RES 1: Gbp0.8238 High Apr 18
LPRICE: Gbp0.8220
SUP 1: Gbp0.8205 Monthly low Mar 5
SUP 2: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
SUP 3: Gbp0.8161 21 week lower Bollinger band
SUP 4: Gbp0.8158 2014 Low Feb 17
