Following on from Friday’s dip below the 100-DMA the pair bounced back towards the $1.3753 resistance level to start the new week. Bulls need a close above $1.3753 to ease the bearish pressure that dominated following the failures ahead of the 21-DMA last week, and a close above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus higher. O/S daily studies are slowly starting to correct and may limit downside follow through ahead of last week’s low.
RES 4: $1.3879 Low Mar 17 now resistance
RES 3: $1.3847 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 2: $1.3808 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.3753 Low 3 now resistance
LPRICE: $1.3741
SUP 1: $1.3692 100-DMA
SUP 2: $1.3665 61.8% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 3: $1.3643 Low Feb 27
SUP 4: $1.3610 Rising daily trend line off Nov monthly low
GBP/USD popped back above the 21-DMA ($1.6593) to start the new week but still needs to contend with layers of resistance in the $1.6640-1.6718 region before bullish pressure dominates and focus shifts back to retests of the $1.6784-1.6820 region. Initial resistance is noted at the falling daily channel top off Mar highs coming in around $1.6640 today and while this caps a retest of the long term rising daily channel base is favoured by bears.
RES 4: $1.6693 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.6684 High Mar 31
RES 2: $1.6664 High Apr 2
RES 1: $1.6640 Falling daily channel top
LPRICE: $1.6613
SUP 1: $1.6543 Rising channel base off Nov monthly low
SUP 2: $1.6491 100-DMA
SUP 3: $1.6465 Monthly low Mar 24
SUP 4: $1.6453 38.2% Fibonacci 1.5856-1.6822
The correction lower from last week’s Y104.11 high continued to start the new week with the USD/JPY now having dipped below the Y103.00 previous initial support. Correcting O/B daily studies continue to add weight to the bearish case that initially targets the layers of support Y102.32-66 with a close below then seeing bears targeting the Y101.20-72 region. Bulls need to see a close above the Y103.58 level to shift higher to tests of last week’s high
RES 4: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 3: Y104.11 High Apr 3
RES 2: Y103.58 Low Apr 2 now resistance
RES 1: Y103.39 High Apr 7
LPRICE: Y102.94
SUP 1: Y102.66 50.0% Fibonacci 101.20-104.11
SUP 2: Y102.47 High Mar 27 now support
SUP 3: Y102.32 61.8% Fibonacci 101.20-104.11
SUP 4: Y101.72 Low Mar 27
The Y141.96 level seems somewhat pivotal with the pair failing ahead of this level to start the new week. Bulls now look for a close above this level to ease the current bearish pressure that is targeting a test of the Y140.91 support with a close below then seeing the Y139.86-140.02 region targeted. A close above Y141.96 sees focus shift to retests of the Y143.47-80 region. Daily studies are correcting lower and add weight to the bearish case
RES 4: Y143.47 High Apr 3
RES 3: Y142.67 Hourly resistance Apr 3
RES 2: Y141.96 Alternating daily support/resistance
RES 1: Y141.69 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y141.47
SUP 1: Y140.91 38.2% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77, 100-DMA
SUP 2: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 3: Y139.86 Rising daily trend line off Nov monthly low
SUP 4: Y138.68 Low Feb 12
The Gbp0.8231-51 support region confirmed its significance and remains key, although with the 21 day lower Bolli at Gbp0.8231, downside moves may initially lack follow through below GBP0.8231. Another concern for a continuation lower is oversold daily tech studies. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease the bearish pressure while a close above Gbp0.8330 is needed to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus higher.
RES 4: Gbp0.8367 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8330 Low Mar 20 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8323 High Mar 27, 21-DMA
RES 1: Gbp0.8303 100-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8269
SUP 1: Gbp0.8251 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 2: Gbp0.8231 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Gbp0.8205 Monthly low Mar 5
SUP 4: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
