The move lower continued with the pair dipping below the 100-DMA. Resistance in the $1.3731-53 region is key with bulls needing a close above to ease the bearish pressure that dominated following the failures ahead of the 21-DMA last week, and a close above the 21-DMA to shift overall focus higher. Bears will be looking for a continuation lower that initially targets the $1.3643 low from Feb 27 then the rising daily trend line below.
RES 4: $1.3847 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: $1.3812 21-DMA
RES 2: $1.3753 Daily low 3 now resistance
RES 1: $1.3731 High Apr 4
LPRICE: $1.3697
SUP 1: $1.3665 61.8% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 2: $1.3643 Low Feb 27
SUP 3: $1.3607 Rising daily trend line off Nov monthly low
SUP 4: $1.3552 Low Feb 7
The break and close below the 21-DMA confirms the renewed bearish pressure that is now targeting the rising daily channel base off the Nov monthly low around $1.6537 today. Layers of support remain just below in the $1.6453-86 region with a close below needed to see focus shift lower to a retest of the $1.6252 Feb monthly low. Bulls now look for a close above $1.6618 to ease the current bearish pressure and above $1.6684 to shift overall focus higher
RES 4: $1.6664 High Apr 2
RES 3: $1.6647 Falling daily channel top
RES 2: $1.6618 Low Apr 1 now resistance
RES 1: $1.6606 High Apr 4
LPRICE: $1.6570
SUP 1: $1.6537 Rising channel base off Nov monthly low
SUP 2: $1.6486 100-DMA
SUP 3: $1.6465 Monthly low Mar 24
SUP 4: $1.6453 38.2% Fibonacci 1.5856-1.6822
Daily studies have begun correcting from previously overbought levels following the sharp move lower for the pair on Friday. Initial resistance is now noted at the Y103.58 level that was previously support with bulls needing a close above to shift focus back to the recent highs and Y104.11. Correcting studies add weight to the bearish case but layers of support at noted in the Y102.32-00 region including key DMA’s which are likely to slow any move lower.
RES 4: Y105.07 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 2: Y104.11 High Apr 3, 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Y103.58 Low Apr 2 now resistance
LPRICE: Y103.25
SUP 1: Y103.00 38.2% Fibonacci 101.20-104.11
SUP 2: Y102.80 Low Mar 3
SUP 3: Y102.66 50.0% Fibonacci 101.20-104.11
SUP 4: Y102.47 High Mar 27 now support
The failure of EUR/JPY to retest the Mar monthly high and the resulting dip Thursday was followed up with a sharp move lower to end the week. The close below the 21-DMA confirmed an easing of the previous bullish pressure with bears now looking for a continuation lower that targets layers of support in the Y140.02-91 region while the 21-DMA caps. Bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to hint at a resumption of bullish pressure
RES 4: Y143.79 High Mar 7
RES 3: Y143.47 High Apr 3
RES 2: Y142.67 Hourly resistance Apr 3
RES 1: Y141.76 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y141.44
SUP 1: Y141.25 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 2: Y140.91 38.2% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 3: Y140.88 100-DMA
SUP 4: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
The Gbp0.8240-51 support region confirmed its significance and remains key, although with the 21 day lower Bolli at Gbp0.8236, downside moves may initially lack follow through. Another concern for a continuation lower are oversold daily tech studies. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease the bearish pressure while a close above Gbp0.8330 is needed to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus higher.
RES 4: Gbp0.8367 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8330 Low Mar 20 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8323 High Mar 27
RES 1: Gbp0.8305 100-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8267
SUP 1: Gbp0.8251 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 2: Gbp0.8236 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Gbp0.8205 Monthly low Mar 5
SUP 4: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
