The recovery from $1.3705 appears to have run out of steam ahead of the 21-DMA with a close above needed to give the bulls hope and retest the key $1.3879 resistance targeted. The 21-DMA failure sees bears looking for a retest of the $1.3705 Mar 28 low with layers of support noted in the $1.3643-1.3705 region. The main concern for a continuation lower continues remains the O/S daily Slow Stochastic study which may limit downside follow through.
RES 4: $1.3879 Low Mar 17 now resistance
RES 3: $1.3847 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 2: $1.3830 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.3827 21-DMA
LPRICE: $1.3755
SUP 1: $1.3705 Low Mar 28
SUP 2: $1.3686 100-DMA
SUP 3: $1.3665 61.8% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 4: $1.3643 Low Feb 27
Bears continue look for a close below the 21-DMA to see focus shift back to the rising daily trend line with a close below $1.6597 needed to confirm a clean break of the 21-DMA. Solid support is noted in the $1.6465-79 region including the 21 day lower Bollinger band and 100-DMA which are likely to slow any fall. Bulls will look for the 21-DMA to hold and a close above $1.6684 to kick start bullish momentum and target the $1.6718-1.6820 region
RES 4: $1.6741 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.6718 High Mar 13
RES 2: $1.6684 High Mar 31
RES 1: $1.6664 High Apr 2
LPRICE: $1.6633
SUP 1: $1.6610 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6597 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 3: $1.6579 55-DMA
SUP 4: $1.6524 Rising trend line off Nov monthly low
USD/JPY continues to make gains following on from the close above the falling daily trend line off 2014 highs on Monday. Bulls focus is on a continuation higher that initially targets the Y104.92-105.44 region, although the 21 day upper Bollinger band appears to be slowing the gains a little. Bears need to see a close below Y103.61 to ease the immediate bullish pressure while a close below Y102.80 is needed to shift overall focus lower once more.
RES 4: Y105.44 2014 high Jan 2
RES 3: Y105.27 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 2: Y104.92 High Jan 16
RES 1: Y104.10 21 day upper Bollinger band
LPRICE: Y103.96
SUP 1: Y103.61 Hourly support Apr 2
SUP 2: Y103.05 Low Apr 1
SUP 3: Y102.80 Low Mar 3
SUP 4: Y102.49 High Mar 25 now support
Daily tech studies are heading higher but are not yet at O/B levels with bulls currently targeting a continuation higher that tests the Y143.79 Mar 7 high. A close above is needed to see focus shift to the 2014 high with the 21 week upper Bollinger just below. Bears look for a close below Y142.72 to ease the current bullish pressure and below Y141.96 to shift overall focus lower
RES 4: Y145.12 2014 high Jan 2
RES 3: Y145.03 21 week upper Bollinger band
RES 2: Y144.38 Low Dec 31 now resistance
RES 1: Y143.79 High Mar 7, 21 day upper Bollinger band
LPRICE: Y143.06
SUP 1: Y142.72 Hourly support Apr 2
SUP 2: Y141.96 Previous daily resistance now support
SUP 3: Y141.25 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 4: Y141.03 Alternating hourly support/resistance
The bounce from the 61.8% Fibonacci support has remained capped ahead of the 100-DMA the past two days with bearish focus dominating again as a result. The Gbp0.8242-51 support region remains key although with the 21 day lower Bollinger at Gbp0.8242 downside moves may initially lack follow through. Bulls need a close above the 100-DMA to ease the bullish pressure while a close above Gbp0.8330 is needed to end bearish hopes and shift overall focus higher.
RES 4: Gbp0.8367 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8330 Low Mar 20 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8323 High Mar 27
RES 1: Gbp0.8307 100-DMA
LPRICE: Gbp0.8368
SUP 1: Gbp0.8251 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 2: Gbp0.8242 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Gbp0.8205 Monthly low Mar 5
SUP 4: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
