Oversold daily tech studies remain a concern for a continuation lower with the bounce to start the new week easing the previous bearish pressure a little. Bulls now need a close above the 21-DMA to see focus shift back to the key $1.3847-79 resistance region that capped last week. Bears will continue to hold out hope for further tests lower while the 21-DMA caps, but with the lower Bolli at $1.3702 and closes below a rarity any dips may lack follow through
After a marginal dip below the 21-DMA on Monday GBP/USD continues to work its way back towards the $1.6718 high from Mar 13 with a close above needed to see focus shift higher to retests of the $1.6787-1.6822 region. Daily studies have room to move topside before becoming O/B and are supportive of further topside. Bears need a close below $1.6597 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and shift focus back to the rising daily trend line.
RES 4: $1.6822 2014 high Feb 17
RES 3: $1.6787 Monthly high Mar 7
RES 2: $1.6756 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: $1.6718 High Mar 13
LPRICE: $1.6658
SUP 1: $1.6617 21-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6597 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 3: $1.6565 55-DMA
SUP 4: $1.6504 Rising trend line off Nov monthly low
The move higher to start the new week saw USD/JPY close above the falling daily trend line off the 2014 high with the pair marginally having traded above the Mar 10 & 11 highs. Immediate bullish focus now shifts to a the Y103.76-86 region with a close above then seeing the Y104.83-105.44 region targeted. Bears need to see a close back below the Y102.49 support to see focus shift back to last week’s Y101.72 low.
RES 4: Y103.86 Low Jan 20 now resistance
RES 3: Y103.76 High Mar 7
RES 2: Y103.62 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 1: Y103.43 High Mar 31
LPRICE: Y103.27
SUP 1: Y102.68 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 2: Y102.49 High Mar 25 now support
SUP 3: Y101.99 Hourly support Mar 27
SUP 4: Y101.72 Low Mar 27
As daily tech studies correct from oversold levels and remain supportive of further topside bulls are currently targeting a continuation higher tha tests the Y143.46-79 region where the upper 21 day Bollinger band is located. Bears need to see a close below the Y141.75 pivotal hourly support to ease the current bullish pressure while a close below Y141.25 is needed to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and see focus shift back to last week’s low.
RES 4: Y145.12 2014 high Jan 2
RES 3: Y144.38 Low Dec 31 now resistance
RES 2: Y143.79 High Mar 7
RES 1: Y143.46 21 day upper Bollinger band
LPRICE: Y142.24
SUP 1: Y141.75 Hourly support Mar 31
SUP 2: Y141.25 Hourly support Mar 28
SUP 3: Y141.03 Alternating hourly support/resistance
SUP 4: Y139.96 Low Mar 28
EUR/GBP managed to marginally dip below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement on Friday before finding support ahead of the Fibo on Monday. Bears now need to see a close below the 61.8% Fibo level to kick start bearish momentum or else the risk of a bounce back to the key Gbp0.8323-30 region will increase. A close above Gbp0.8330 is needed to end bearish hopes and see the overall focus shift back to the Gbp0.8363-00 region.
RES 4: Gbp0.8367 Hourly resistance Mar 25
RES 3: Gbp0.8330 Low Mar 20 now resistance
RES 2: Gbp0.8323 High Mar 27
RES 1: Gbp0.8296 High Mar 31
LPRICE: Gbp0.8264
SUP 1: Gbp0.8251 61.8% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 2: Gbp0.8221 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 3: Gbp0.8205 Low Mar 5
SUP 4: Gbp0.8192 Low Feb 28
