The correction lower from ahead of the $1.3948-66 region Thursday saw the EUR/USD break and close below the rising daily channel base and 21-DMA with the pair struggling at the 21-DMA Friday. A close above $1.3811 is now needed to ease bearish pressure while bulls need to see a close above $1.3879 to shift focus back to the $1.3948-66 region. While $1.3881 caps bears are initially targeting the $1.3644-94 region with a further break lower targeting the 200-DMA
RES 4: $1.3948 High Mar 17
RES 3: $1.3879 Low Mar 17 & 18 now resistance
RES 2: $1.3845 High Mar 20
RES 1: $1.3811 High Mar 21
LPRICE: $1.3800
SUP 1: $1.3749 Low Mar 20
SUP 2: $1.3722 50.0% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
SUP 3: $1.3699 55-DMA
SUP 4: $1.3665 61.8% Fibonacci 1.3479-1.3966
The close below the 55-DMA last week gave the bears comfort and now initially targets a retest of the $1.6384-1.6471 region where key supports are noted. Bulls now look for a close above the Mar 20 high to ease the current bearish pressure while a close above the 21-DMA ($1.6640) is needed to hint at further topside with a close above Mar 13 highs confirming. Daily studies are looking a little oversold which will come into play on a close above $1.6570.
RES 4: $1.6640 21-DMA
RES 3: $1.6604 Hourly resistance Mar 19
RES 2: $1.6570 High Mar 20
RES 1: $1.6522 Hourly resistance Mar 21
LPRICE: $1.6488
SUP 1: $1.6471 61.8% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
SUP 2: $1.6465 Rising daily trend line
SUP 3: $1.6425 100-DMA
SUP 4: $1.6384 Low Feb 10
Consolidation below Wednesday’s Y102.68 high is becoming a concern for bulls with a close above needed to reconfirm bullish focus and see immediate focus shift to a retest of the Y103.09-79 region. Bears continue to look for a close below Y101.94 that previously capped to see bearish pressure take hold and target the key Y100.75-101.20 support region and then the key 200-DMA below. Daily studies are correcting from modestly O/S and support a move higher.
RES 4: Y103.09 High Mar 12
RES 3: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
RES 2: Y102.68 High Mar 19
RES 1: Y102.55 High Mar 20
LPRICE: Y102.40
SUP 1: Y101.94 High Mar 18 now support
SUP 2: Y101.20 Low Mar 3 & 14
SUP 3: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
SUP 4: Y100.50 200-DMA
Repeated failures ahead of the Y142.00-24 region have resulted in a break of and close below the rising daily trend line off the Feb 4 low and the 21-DMA. Bears are looking for a break below the Y140.45-70 support region to initially target the 100-DMA (Y140.06) and then the Feb 27 low beneath. Bulls need a close above Friday’s high to ease bearish pressure and above Y142.24 to shift focus higher
RES 4: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
RES 3: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
RES 2: Y141.97 High Mar 17 & 18
RES 1: Y141.35 21-DMA
LPRICE: Y141.30
SUP 1: Y140.69 55-DMA
SUP 2: Y140.45 Low Mar 14
SUP 3: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
SUP 4: Y138.81 Low Feb 27
EUR/GBP bounced from ahead of initial support on Friday with the 100-DMA (0.8315) noted just below. Layers of resistance remain in the 0.8376-0.8422 region with a close above the 200-DMA needed to see bullish focus confirmed and see bulls initially targeting a retest of the 0.8466 monthly high from Dec 17. Bears continue to look for a close below the Mar 11 low to hint at further downside with below 0.8300 targeting 0.8159-0.8205.
RES 4: 0.8422 200-DMA
RES 3: 0.8410 High Dec 25
RES 2: 0.8400 2014 high Mar 18
RES 1: 0.8376 Hourly resistance Mar 19
LPRICE: 0.8369
SUP 1: 0.8322 Low Mar 11
SUP 2: 0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
SUP 3: 0.8280 50.0% Fibonacci 0.8159-0.8400
SUP 4: 0.8247 High Mar 5 now support
