Bullish focus remains on the $1.3948-67 region with a break higher seeing focus shift to a retest of the $1.4199-1.4247 region from Oct 2011. Bears continue to look for a close below $1.3879 to ease the current bullish pressure while a close below $1.3824 remains needed to confirm a break of the $1.3824-46 support region, hinting at a deeper correction and seeing initial focus shift to the rising daily channel base ($1.3785) and the 21-DMA.
RES 4: $1.4199 High Oct 28 2011
ES 3: $1.4005 Rising daily channel top
ES 2: $1.3967 2014 high Mar 13
ES 1: $1.3948 High Mar 17
LPRICE: $1.3919 @0530GMT
SUP 1: $1.3879 Low Mar 17 & 18
SUP 2: $1.3846 Low Mar 14
SUP 3: $1.3824 High Feb 28 now support
SUP 4: $1.3808 21-DMA
Following on from Monday’s failed attempt to break above the 21-DMA GBP/USD dipped to test the 55-DMA on Tuesday. Bears continue to look for a close below the 55-DMA to add weight to the bearish case that is initially targeting the $1.6452-71 region where the rising daily trend line and 21-DMA are noted. Bulls continue to look for a close above the 21-DMA to ease the bearish pressure and a close above $1.6718 to shift overall focus higher.
RES 4: $1.6741 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: $1.6718 High Mar 13
RES 2: $1.6660 21-DMA
RES 1: $1.6604 Hourly resistance Mar 19
LPRICE: $1.6592 @0530GMT
SUP 1: $1.6548 55-DMA
SUP 2: $1.6538 50.0% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
SUP 3: $1.6471 61.8% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
SUP 4: $1.6452 Rising daily trend line
The Y101.20 support remains key to immediate direction. Bears look for a close below to hint at a continuation lower that initially targets the 2014 low and then the key 200-DMA beneath. While Y101.20 supports bulls will look for a close above Y102.12 to ease the current bearish pressure and a close above the 100-DMA at Y102.40 to end bearish hopes and see initial focus shift higher to the Y103.09 Mar 12 high and then the Y103.75-80 region above.
RES 4: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
RES 3: Y102.40 100-DMA
RES 2: Y102.24 21-DMA
RES 1: Y102.12 Daily low Mar 5 now resistance
LPRICE: Y101.55 @0530GMT
SUP 1: Y101.20 Low Mar 3 & 14, 21 day lower Bollinger band
SUP 2: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
SUP 3: Y100.40 200-DMA
SUP 4: Y99.59 Low Nov 19
The pullback from Y141.97 is of some concern for the bulls looking for a break above Y142.24 and a retest of the Y143.75-80 region. Bulls continue to take comfort in the bounce from the rising daily channel base with a close below the Mar 14 low needed to confirm a break lower, initially targeting the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the Feb-Mar move (Y140.02) and the100-DMA (Y139.82), then the Y138.72 low from Feb 12.
RES 4: Y143.52 21 day upper Bollinger band
RES 3: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
RES 2: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
RES 1: Y141.97 High Mar 17 & 18
LPRICE: Y141.35 @0530GMT
SUP 1: Y140.98 Rising daily channel base
SUP 2: Y140.77 55-DMA
SUP 3: Y140.45 Low Mar 14
SUP 4: Y140.02 50.0% Fibonacci 136.28-143.77
Persistent bullish pressure on the Gbp0.8380 level resulted in fresh 2014 and 3 month highs with bulls now targeting the Gbp0.8410-24 region with the 200-DMA noted at Gbp0.8424. Bears now look for a close below the Gbp0.8361 low from Tuesday to ease the current bullish pressure while a close below the 100-DMA remains needed to end bullish hopes and see bears targeting a retest of the Gbp0.8159-0.8205 region
RES 4: Gbp0.8466 Monthly high Dec 17
RES 3: Gbp0.8443 55-WMA
RES 2: Gbp0.8424 200-DMA
RES 1: Gbp0.8410 High Dec 25
LPRICE: Gbp0.8389 @0530GMT
SUP 1: Gbp0.8361 Low Mar 18
SUP 2: Gbp0.8341 Low Mar 17
SUP 3: Gbp0.8318 100-DMA
SUP 4: Gbp0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
