Bulls target a break to fresh 2014 highs that then sees focus shift to the $1.4199-1.4247 region as bullish pressure continues to build. Bears now need to see a close below the $1.3879 hourly support to ease the current bullish pressure while a close below $1.3824 remains needed to confirm a break of the $1.3824-46 support region, hinting at a deeper correction and seeing initial focus shift to the rising daily channel base ($1.3775) and the 21-DMA ($1.3801).
R 4: $1.4199 High Oct 28 2011
R 3: $1.3995 Rising daily channel top
R 2: $1.3967 2014 high Mar 13
R 1: $1.3948 High Mar 17
LP: $1.3928
S 1: $1.3919 Hourly support Mar 18
S 2: $1.3879 Hourly support Mar 17
S 3: $1.3846 Low Mar 14
S 4: $1.3824 High Feb 28 now support
GBP/USD continues to hesitate ahead of the 21-DMA with Monday’s attempt higher failing to break above. Bulls look for a close above $1.6718 to confirm a break of the 21-DMA and confirm bullish focus with a retest of the 2014 highs then targeted. While the pair remains capped at $1.6718 bears will be looking for a move lower with a close below the 55-DMA needed to hint at a deeper correction that initially targets the rising daily trend line ($1.6445).
R 4: $1.6786 High Mar 7
R 3: $1.6737 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: $1.6718 High Mar 13
R 1: $1.6666 21-DMA
LP: $1.6630
S 1: $1.6605 Low Mar 17
S 2: $1.6568 Low Mar 12
S 3: $1.6548 55-DMA
S 4: $1.6538 50.0% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
The bounce from last week’s lows has eased the bearish pressure a little with bulls now needing a close above the 100-DMA to end bearish aspirations and see overall focus return to the Y103.75-80 region. While the 100-DMA caps bears will be looking for a retest of the key Y100.75-101.20 support region with a break lower then targeting the 200-DMA. A close below the 200-DMA would be seen as a significantly bearish event
R 4: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
R 3: Y102.38 100-DMA
R 2: Y102.30 21-DMA
R 1: Y102.12 Daily low Mar 5 now resistance
LP: Y101.80
S 1: Y101.54 Hourly support Mar 17
S 2: Y101.20 Low Mar 3 & 14, 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
S 4: Y100.38 200-DMA
The bounce from the rising daily channel base on Friday combined with Monday’s bounce from the 55-DMA has seen focus shift from lower levels to a retest of the Y142.24 resistance. Bulls look for a close above to confirm bullish focus and see the Y143.79 Mar 7 high targeted. Bears now need to see a close back below Y141.30 hourly support to see pressure return to the Y140.45-83 region where the rising daily channel base and 55-DMA are located.
R 4: Y143.79 High Mar 7
R 3: Y143.54 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 2: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
R 1: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
LP: Y141.80
S 1: Y141.30 Hourly support Mar 17
S 2: Y140.83 Rising daily channel base, 55-DMA
S 3: Y140.45 Low Mar 14
S 4: Y139.69 100-DMA
The pressure continues to build ahead of the Gbp0.8380 2014 high from Mar 14. A close above reconfirms bullish focus and targets the Gbp0.8410-24 region with the 200-DMA noted at Gbp0.8424. Bears now look for a close below Gbp0.8341 to ease the bullish pressure with a close below Gbp0.8321 needed to confirm a break of the 100-DMA, hinting at a deeper correction that targets the 21 and 55-DMA’s.
R 4: Gbp0.8424 200-DMA
R 3: Gbp0.8410 High Dec 25
R 2: Gbp0.8394 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 1: Gbp0.8380 2014 high Mar 14
LP: Gbp0.8370
S 1: Gbp0.8362 Hourly support Mar 17
S 2: Gbp0.8341 Low Mar 17
S 3: Gbp0.8321 Low Mar 11, 100-DMA
S 4: Gbp0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
