The relatively bearish close combined with O/B studies is a concern for bulls targeting the $1.4199-1.4247 region, with immediate focus shifting to key support in the $1.3824-34 region. Bears look for a close below $1.3824 to hint at a deeper correction with focus initially shifting to the rising daily channel base and 21-DMA and then the $1.3644-95 region below. Bulls need to see a close above $1.3915 to hint at further topside
R 4: $1.4199 High Oct 28 2011
R 3: $1.3967 2014 high Mar 13
R 2: $1.3915 Breakout level Mar 13
R 1: $1.3878 Hourly resistance Mar 14
LP: $1.3850
S 1: $1.3834 Low Mar 11
S 2: $1.3824 High Feb 28 now support
S 3: $1.3771 21-DMA
S 4: $1.3755 Rising daily channel base
Thursday’s move higher lacked follow through with the failure to close above the 21-DMA giving bears hope for further downside. Bears look for a close below the 55-DMA ($1.6543) to confirm and see focus shift to retests of the 100-DMA and then the 2014 low at $1.6252. A close above $1.6650 is needed to hint at further topside and above $1.6718 confirms a break of the 21-DMA and sees bulls targeting 2014 highs.
R 4: $1.6759 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: $1.6718 High Mar 13
R 2: $1.6675 21-DMA
R 1: $1.6650 Alternating hourly support/resistance
LP: $1.6615
S 1: $1.6604 Hourly support Mar 13
S 2: $1.6568 Low Mar 12
S 3: $1.6538 50.0% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
S 4: $1.6471 61.8% Fibonacci 1.6255-1.6823
USD/JPY continued to head lower on Thursday, closing below key moving averages and supports with immediate bearish focus shifting to retests of the Y100.75-101.20 region. Initial resistance is noted on the hourlies at Y101.87 but bulls need a close above the 21-DMA to ease the renewed bearish pressure while a close above the 55-DMA (Y103.02) is needed to shift immediate focus to retests of the Y103.75-85 region.
R 4: Y102.87 Hourly resistance Mar 13
R 3: Y102.32 21-DMA
R 2: Y102.12 Daily low Mar 5 now resistance
R 1: Y101.87 Hourly resistance Mar 14
LP: Y101.60
S 1: Y101.54 Low Mar 13
S 2: Y101.20 Low Mar 3, 21 day lower Bollinger band
S 3: Y100.75 2014 low Feb 4
S 4: Y100.33 200-DMA
Daily Momentum, Slow Stochastic and RSI studies have begun to correct from O/B levels with immediate focus having turned bearish and threatening a retest of the rising daily channel base. A break lower sees bears targeting the Y138.68 Feb 12 low. Bulls now look for a close above Y141.32 to ease bearish pressure while a close back above Y142.24 is needed to see focus return to a retest of the Y143.34-80 region.
R 4: Y143.47 21 day upper Bollinger band
R 3: Y143.34 Hourly resistance Mar 11
R 2: Y142.24 Low Mar 12 now resistance
R 1: Y141.32 Hourly resistance Mar 13
LP: Y140.90
S 1: Y140.69 Low Mar 13
S 2: Y140.52 Rising daily channel base
S 3: Y139.62 100-DMA
S 4: Y138.68 Low Feb 12
The lack of follow through with O/B daily studies is of some concern for the bullish continuation that is targeting the Gbp0.8410-26 region. Bears are now looking for a close below Gbp0.8321 to confirm a break of the 100-DMA (Gbp0.8323), seeing focus turn bearish and hint at a deeper correction that targets the 21 and 55-DMA’s. A close at fresh 2014 highs is now needed to kick start bullish momentum.
R 4: Gbp0.8426 200-DMA
R 3: Gbp0.8410 High Dec 25
R 2: Gbp0.8378 2014 high Mar 13
R 1: Gbp0.8348 Hourly resistance Mar 14
LP: Gbp0.8340
S 1: Gbp0.8321 Low Mar 11
S 2: Gbp0.8301 High Mar 7 now support
S 3: Gbp0.8270 55-DMA, 50% Fibo 0.8159-0.8378
S 4: Gbp0.8262 21-DMA
