Repeat after me: 10-year rates will rise and the dollar will advance in 2014. That seems to be the near unanimous chorus from Bloomberg analysts judging by the forecasts on FXFC <GO> and ECFC <GO>, respectively.
Try finding an analyst who recommends selling Dec-14 USDCHF forwards: only 1 of 48 believe this will be profitable. There are no analysts that believe Canadian, Swiss or Kiwi rates will finish 2014 below the current 1-year forward, 10-year rate out of 37 forecasts total. In the US, only 5 of 74 analysts are looking for 10-year rates to finish 2014 below the 1y10y rate of 3%, and just one analyst is looking below 2.63% (fittingly, his name is Chris Low). Of 192 separate G8 2014 10-year rates forecasts, 179 (93%) are above the forwards.
Read the full report: FX Daily
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