The second release of the German Q4 GDP figure is likely to get some attention asthe first release of the underlying components is due. The latest figure for retail salessuggests that we should not expect too much from private consumption. In contrast,gross fixed capital formation, which increased 1.6% q/q in both Q2 and Q3, willlikely increase again as pent-up demand is also being unleashed in Germany.
The European commission will publish its winter economic forecast. In theautumn it expected euro GDP growth to be 1.1% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2015, whileinflation was projected to 1.5% in 2014 declining to 1.4% in 2015. The new inflationforecast will likely get the most attention and we expect a lowering of the projection.
US Conference Board consumer confidence is expected to decline as the latestdisappointing US data are likely reflected in the sentiment for February.
Fed’s Tarullo and Dudley (both voters) speak today. Tarullo, who speaks on apanel titled ‘A view from the Fed’, is considered neutral and it will be particularlyinteresting to hear his point of view on the latest weakness in US data, which hasbecome more difficult to shrug off as just weather-related.
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Danske Bank