EUR/USD sees continuing risks of the daily and hourly studies turning lower as bears get ready to focus on a minor support line at $1.3721 and moving averages at $1.3638/42/61. Resistance is now in the $1.3811/29 region from a number of daily highs, with the daily Bollinger band top also in that range at $1.3815. Bulls need to push on to the $1.3894 Dec 27 reversal high to negate this risk.
R 4: $1.3894 High Dec 27
R 3: $1.3874 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
R 2: $1.3829 High 25 Oct
R 1: $1.3811/18 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18, Bollinger band, Dec 30/31
LP: $1.3733
S 1: $1.3661 55-DMA
S 2: $1.3626/45 100, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.3594 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3562 Low Feb 13
GBP/USD holds just under a 38.2% retracement of the decline from $1.6823, coming in at $1.6675 with the 50% at $1.6703 and 61.8% at 1.6731. Bears focus on the recent bear-cross in the daily slow stochastic study and look to turn attention to Fibonacci retracements of the February advance at $1.6605 and $1.6537.
R 4: $1.6878 Monthly high of Nov 2009
R 3: $1.6835 Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6823/26 High Feb 17, 138.2% projection level
R 1: $1.6703 50% of pullback from $1.6823
LP: $1.6664
S 1: $1.6625 Hourly low
S 2: $1.6603/05 Former reversal high Jan 2, Fibonacci level
S 3: $1.6535/37 21-DMA, 50% of February rally
S 4: $1.6517 High Jan 10
USD/JPY recovers the Tenkan line at Y102.12 with the daily studies mixed, as 10-day momentum threatens a break lower but the daily stochastic study recovers. Bears face support from the Ichimoku cloud base at Y101.57, while ear-term resistance is Y102.74/81 from recent highs and the Kijun line.
R 4: Y103.98 Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: Y103.37/65 55-DMA, 61.8% level
R 2: Y103.10 50% of 2014 decline
R 1: Y102.74/81 High 18 Feb, Daily Kijun line
LP: Y102.43
S 1: Y101.53/57/74 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% level, Cloud base, 100-DMA
S 2: Y101.38 Low 17 Feb
S 3: Y100.61/75 High Sept 11 & 61.8% Y97.62-105.44, Early Feb lows
S 4: Y100.21 200-day moving average
EUR/JPY sees the daily slow-stochastic study risking a bear-cross from a recent recovering stance. The pair holds under Fibonacci resistance at Y140.99 and the Y141.25 55-DMA, while bears try and turn attention to the Tenkan line of the Ichimoku cloud at Y139.98.
R 4: Y142.46 Ichimoku Cloud top
R 3: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
R 2: Y141.25/53 55-DMA, 1% Upper Band
R 1: Y140.99 61.8% retracement level
LP: Y140.74
S 1: Y139.34/46/98 Kijun line, 21-DMA, Tenkan line of Ichimoku cloud
S 2: Y138.64/67 100-DMA, Low 12 Feb
S 3: Y138.44/46 Ichimoku cloud base, 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 4: Y138.11 High Feb 3
