EUR/USD rebreaks the channel top to close above the high from Feb 11, daily studies remain bullish but now nearer overbought. Resistance now at the $1.3700 level from a number of daily highs and lows, a break above would target resistance around $1.3734 – the daily Bolli band top and further gains targets $1.3893 Dec 27 reversal high. However, bears aim to retest the channe top as support at $1.3612 – a break back below could turn daily studies around
R 4: $1.3874 Monthly resistance line from Jul 2008
R 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 2: $1.3734/39 Daily Bollinger band top, High Jan 24
R 1: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
Latest price: $1.3680
S 1: $1.3649/51 5-DMA, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.3612/15 Dec 30 falling channel top, 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3594 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3562 Low Feb 13
GBP/USD squeezed above the Jan 24 reversal high to $1.6673 which becomes initial resistance. Daily studies remain bullish and weekly studies have begun to rise also, bulls now target the $1.3700 level and a break above could accelerate gains to the Apr 2011 high at $1.6747, however we note studies are overbought which may limit the upside. Bears require a break back below the July support line at $1.6527 to shift sentiment back south.
R 4: $1.6798 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6747 April 2011 High
R 2: $1.6693 High Oct 2009, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: $1.6668/73 Highs Jan 24, Feb 13
Latest price: $1.6644
S 1: $1.6625/35 High Jan 28, 200-month MA
S 2: $1.6593/6603 Hourly low, Former reversal high Jan 2
S 3: $1.6517/27 High Jan 10, Redrawn July support line
S 4: $1.6480/94 23.6% $1.5855-1.6673, High Feb 11
USD/JPY descends to the cloud base and 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44 but currently fails to break below. Daily studies show the potential to reverse lower while weekly studies remain bearish – a break below the Y101.53 level targets the 100-DMA at Y101.39 followed by the key redrawn Nov 2012 support line at Y101.27. Bears require a close below here to turn sentiment south, however failure at these levels could allow bulls to recover some losses
R 4: Y103.42 55-day moving average
R 3: Y103.05 Daily Kijun
R 2: Y102.63 21-DMA
R 1: Y102.41/49 Hourly high, Low Jan 28
Latest price: Y101.70
S 1: Y101.45/53 Cloud base, Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% Y97.62-105.44
S 2: Y101.27 Redrawn Nov 2012 support line
S 3: Y100.61/71 High Sept 11 & 61.8% Y97.62-105.44, Daily Bolli base
S 4: Y100.21 200-day moving average
EUR/JPY left an inside-day yesterday while holding below the Y140.00 level – bulls require a close above here to resume rising while daily studies continue to climb. However, we note weekly/monthly studies continue to decline and key initial support is at Y138.46 – the daily cloud base and 50.0% level, a break below here could turn daily studies around and see a decline to the 200-DMA at Y134.32, but ahead of here is support around the Y138.00 level.
R 4: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
R 3: Y140.96/99/141.18 Weekly Tenkan, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12, 55-DMA
R 2: Y140.30/50 High Feb 11, Low Jan 13
R 1: Y140.07/16 Hourly high, 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69 & Low Jan 28
Latets price: Y139.15
S 1: Y138.46 Daily Ichimoku cloud base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 2: Y138.11/17/26 High Feb 3, Low Feb 7, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y137.91/138.04 21-week MA, 100-DMA
S 4: Y137.49/54 Weekly Kijun line, High Feb 5
