US retail sales likely got off to a soft start in January following a strong finish to2013. As consensus we look for 0.0% m/m in total retail sales and 0.1% m/m in retailsales ex autos and gasoline. The risk is mainly seen to the downside. Lower gasolineprices in Q4 gave a strong boost to consumers but this effect has faded recently. Theweather has likely also affected sales in January.
US initial jobless claims are expected to be broadly flat at 330k. This is still a levelthat signals decent employment growth.
Fed chairman Janet Yellen will testify before the Senate’s banking committee butthe statement will be a repeat of the testimony to the House and we are unlikely to getany new information.
The ECB publishes its monthly bulletin, which this time will include the Survey ofProfessional Forecasters where focus will be on the long-term inflation expectations,which are currently at 1.9%. This is the survey the ECB refers to when it callsinflation expectations well anchored – making it very important for the ECB. If it fallsto 1.8%, it would put pressure on ECB to ease policy further.
The Swedish Riksbank is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 0.75% and tonot make big changes to the rate path.
Read the full report: FX Daily
Danske Bank