EUR/USD closed within the falling channel but bulls already testing the top as initial res at $1.3618 – break above could resume tracking higher, however failure at channel top increases downside risk. Weekly studies remain bearish and initial support is around yesterday’s low at $1.3552-62, a number of daily highs and lows. A break below targets daily Bolli base at $1.3476 and below is key suppt at $1.3456/58 – a couple of key Fibonacci levels.
R 4: $1.3718/39 Daily Bollinger band top, High Jan 24
R 3: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 2: $1.3648 55-day moving average
R 1: $1.3617/18 Hourly high, Dec 30 falling channel top
Latest price: $1.3610
S 1: $1.3552/55/62 Low Feb 7, High Feb 5, Low Feb 12
S 2: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 3: $1.3476/77 Daily Bolli band base, Low Feb 3
S 4: $1.3456/58 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3893, 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
GBP/USD bursts higher to close above redrawn July support line which becomes support at $1.6516. However, momentum points higher and bulls target a retest of Jan 24 reversal high at $1.6668, just below daily Bolli top at $1.6675. Ahead of here, initial support at $1.6625/34 – Jan 28 high and 200-month MA. Further gains targets the Apr 2011 highs at $1.6747, but failure ahead of here cautions bulls while monthly/weekly studies are near overbought.
R 4: $1.6747 April 2011 High
R 3: $1.6690/93 Sept 2013 Double-bottom target, High Oct 2009
R 2: $1.6668/75 High Jan 24, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: $1.6625/34 High Jan 28, 200-month MA
Latest price: $1.6610
S 1: $1.6593/6603 Hourly low, Former reversal high Jan 2
S 2: $1.6516/17 Redrawn July support line, High Jan 10
S 3: $1.6494/95 High Feb 11, 5-DMA
S 4: $1.6465/76 21-DMA, 23.6% $1.5855-1.6668,
USD/JPY currently testing around the Y102.00 level where a number of daily lows form support, bears aim to break below while weekly studies slide but we note daily studies are mixed and a bounce from this level could see them continue higher. Initial resistance is at Y102.75 – the 21-DMA. However, a break below the Y102.00 level runs into thick support all the way down to the redrawn Nov 2012 support line at Y101.20 which bears aim to close below
R 4: Y103.95/104.08/09 Daily Ichimoku cloud top, Lows Jan 3, Jan 15
R 3: Y103.43 55-day moving average
R 2: Y103.05/10 Daily Kijun, 50.0% Y105.44-100.76
R 1: Y102.75/86 21-DMA, Low Jan 13
Latets price: Y102.03
S 1: Y101.73/77 Daily Tenkan line, Low Jan 27 & High Feb 5
S 2: Y101.45/53 Cloud base, Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% Y97.62-105.44
S 3: Y101.20 Redrawn Nov 2012 support line
S 4: Y100.61/74 High Sept 11 & 61.8% Y97.62-105.44, Daily Bolli base
EUR/JPY holds below the Jan 2 resistance line and now slips back below the former Nov 2012 support line – bears will look to hold below while bulls will aim to retest this level at Y139.60/71 while daily studies rise. However, we note weekly and monthly studies remain bearish and failure to retest initial resistance adds risk lower. Initial support seen at Y138.46 – the 50.0% and daily Ichimoku cloud base, a break below targets the Feb 4 low at Y136.23.
R 4: Y140.96/99/141.17 Weekly Tenkan, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12, 55-DMA
R 3: Y140.30/50 High Feb 11, Low Jan 13
R 2: Y139.95 High Jan 30
R 1: Y139.60/71 Nov 2012 support line, Jan 2 resistance line
Latets price: Y139.00
S 1: Y138.46 Daily Ichimoku cloud base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69
S 2: Y138.11/17/26 High Feb 3, Low Feb 7, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y137.90/97 21-week MA, 100-DMA
S 4: Y137.49/54 Weekly Kijun line, High Feb 5
