EUR/USD failed to retest Sept support line but left a higher high and low. To stem losses, bulls require a close above 61.8% at $1.3524 and to retest $1.3574, the Sept support line. However, studies remain bearish and a decline through Feb 3 low at $1.3477 would open downside to further losses and could target a move to 200-DMA at $1.3383. We do note daily studies are near oversold, which could encourage bulls to recover some of the recent decline.
R 4: $1.3641 55-day moving average
R 3: $1.3600/03/06 21-DMA, High Jan 29, 100-DMA
R 2: $1.3573/74 High Jan 31, Sept 6 support line
R 1: $1.3536/39 Highs Feb 3, 4
Latest price: $1.3510
S 1: $1.3468/77 Daily Bolli band base, Low Feb 3
S 2: $1.3456/58 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3893, 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
S 3: $1.3437 76.4% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3400 High Aug 8 & Low Nov 21
GBP/USD consolidates some recent losses after bouncing from 100-DMA and 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6668 yesterday at $1.6253/62 – still key support also joined by former monthly Triangle top at $1.6259, a break below would confirm the new bearish trend. Studies slide and monthly studies stall in overbought territory, downside risk grows if bulls fail to regain ground above former 38.2% at $1.6357, we also note the 55-DMA as further resistance at $1.6401.
R 4: $1.6497/6517 Highs Jan 9, 10
R 3: $1.6451/57 Redrawn July support line, 21-DMA
R 2: $1.6400/01 Low Jan 21, 55-DMA
R 1: $1.6357 Former 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668
Latets price: $1.6337
S 1: $1.6276/90 Daily Bollinger band base, Low Feb 3
S 2: $1.6253/62 100-DMA, 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 3: $1.6220/30 Low Dec 17, 23.6% of $1.4814-1.6668
S 4: $1.6166 61.8% of $1.5855-1.6668
USD/JPY rises into daily Ichimoku cloud after bouncing from support around weekly Kijun line at Y100.68, just above 61.8% of Y97.62-105.44 at Y100.61. Bears look to retest, but initial support now the 100-DMA and daily cloud base at Y101.15/18. Studies are bearish but daily studies declined to oversold territory which could stem losses for now, bulls aim to retest former Nov 2012 support line at Y102.16, but failure below here adds downside risk
R 4: Y102.86 Low Jan 13
R 3: Y102.41/45 High Feb 3, 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
R 2: Y102.16/18 Former Nov 2012 support line, Daily Tenkan line
R 1: Y101.77 Low Jan 27 & Hourly high
Latest price: Y101.40
S 1: Y101.15/18 100-DMA, Daily Ichimoku cloud base
S 2: Y100.61/76 High Sept 11 & 61.8% of Y97.62-105.44, Low Feb 4
S 3: Y100.11 200-day moving average
S 4: Y99.47/62 76.4% of Y97.62-105.44, Monthly Tenkan line
EUR/JPY rises back into daily Bolli band but finds resistance from 100-DMA which caps the upside at Y137.63. Bulls aim above to the daily cloud base at Y138.46 and former Nov 2012 suppt line at Y138.87, however, bearish pressure remains while weekly/monthly studies decline. Failure at 100-DMA could see bears regain control – key support at Y135.33 – monthly Tenkan line, then at Y135.03, the Jun 2013 support line and below here is the 200-DMA at Y133.99.
R 4: Y138.87 Former Nov 2012 support line, Daily Tenkan line
R 3: Y138.46/63 Cloud Base & Former 50.0% Y131.22-145.69,
R 2: Y138.11 High Feb 3
R 1: Y137.54/63 Hourly high, 100-DMA
Latest price: Y136.95
S 1: Y136.77 Daily Bollinger band base
S 2: Y136.36/40 Low Feb 3, High Nov 21
S 3: Y135.33/51 Monthly Tenkan line, High Oct 22
S 4: Y134.99/135.03 High Oct 29, Support line from Jun 2013 low
