EUR/USD held below the Sept 6 support line and declined to the daily Bolli band base – bulls may still aim to retest the support line at $1.3565 as initial resistance, however, bears aim to test new initial support at $1.3456/58 – the 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3893 and 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893, a key support level. Daily/weekly studies are bearish and further losses threatens first the 200-DMA at $1.3379 followed by the July 2012 support line at $1.3182.
R 4: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 3: $1.3640 55-day moving average
R 2: $1.3602/03/09 100-DMA, High Jan 29, 21-DMA
R 1: $1.3565/73 Sept 6 support line, High Jan 31
Latest price: $1.3485
S 1: $1.3456/58 23.6% of $1.2043-1.3893, 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
S 2: $1.3437 76.4% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 3: $1.3400 High Aug 8 & Low Nov 21
S 4: $1.3378/79 Weekly Bolli band base, 200-DMA
GBP/USD continues its slow descent and now dips below the redrawn July support line at $1.6429, initial support seen as the 55-DMA at $1.6395. A move through $1.6400 level targets key 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668 at $1.6357, a close below would confirm the support line break. We note daily studies are bearish and weekly studies are turning lower from overbought adding further downside pressure. However, a close back above the July support line encourages bulls.
R 4: $1.6603 Former reversal high Jan 2
R 3: $1.6526/33/36 Low Jan 29, High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
R 2: $1.6497/98 High Jan 9, Hourly high
R 1: $1.6466/70/76 High Dec 10, 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6668
Latest price: $1.6424
S 1: $1.6395/6400 55-DMA, Low Jan 21
S 2: $1.6357 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 3: $1.6318/21 Daily Bolli band base, Low Dec 12
S 4: $1.6248/62 100-DMA, 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6668
USD/JPY still holds above the Nov 2012 support line but has already tested below today while daily and weekly studies slide, bears look to close below this level at Y102.01 to start a downside break. We also note monthly studies which show potential for a reversal south – further support is at Y101.73 – the daily Bolli base, followed by the 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44 at Y101.53. However, failure to close below Y102.01 could see bulls regain control.
R 4: Y103.60/63 50.0% Y105.44-101.77 & Daily Kijun, Dly cloud top
R 3: Y103.30/33 55-DMA, Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y102.98 Low Jan 23
R 1: Y102.41/45 Hourly high, 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
Latest price: Y102.12
S 1: Y101.90/102.01 Hourly low, Nov 2012 support line
S 2: Y101.73/77 Daily Bolli band base, Low Jan 27
S 3: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y101.10/18 100-DMA, Daily Ichimoku cloud base
EUR/JPY broke below several levels to hold above 100-DMA at Y137.55, initial support despite bears testing below. Weekly/monthly studies decline which suggests further losses, however bulls look to regain daily Bolli band – base is initial res at Y138.17 and above here is key res around Y138.46/63 – daily cloud base, 50.0% level and former Nov 2012 support line. But failure to regain these levels targets further losses – 61.8% is at Y136.75.
R 4: Y140.50 Low Jan 13
R 3: Y139.92/95/140.03 Daily Tenkan line, High Jan 30, High Dec 3
R 2: Y138.46/63 Cloud Base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69, Nov 2012 suppt line
R 1: Y138.17 Daily Bollinger band base
Latest price: Y137.76
S 1: Y137.42/44/55 Hourly low, High Nov 22, 100-DMA
S 2: Y136.75/84/89 61.8% Y131.22-145.69, Weekly Kijun, Jul 2009 high
S 3: Y135.95 High Nov 20
S 4: Y135.51 High Oct 25
