EUR/USD collapsed to the Sept 6 support line and has moved below today – it turns into initial resistance at $1.3561 which bulls will aim to retest today. However, bears look to hold below to confirm a shift in sentiment – further losses targets the 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893 at $1.3524 and below here is the 76.4% at $1.3437 and the 200-DMA at $1.3378. But we note eur-dol remains in an uptrend while above the longer-term July 2012 support line at $1.3168.
R 4: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 3: $1.3641 55-day moving average
R 2: $1.3603 100-DMA & High Jan 29
R 1: $1.3559/61 Hourly high, Sept 6 support line
Latest price: $1.3542
S 1: $1.3513/24 Daily Bolli band base, 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 2: $1.3458 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
S 3: $1.3437 76.4% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3400 High Aug 8 & Low Nov 21
GBP/USD slides to hold around the 21-DMA and 23.6% level at $1.6471/76, bears tested below yesterday and now eye the redrawn July 2013 support line at $1.6418 where strong support is expected but bulls aim to hold above. Weekly/monthly studies look O/B – a break below this key level could swing sentiment south and start a bearish trend. Further key support at $1.5821/55, 200-DMA and Nov 12 low, but ahead of here is 50.0% of $1.5855-1.6668 at $1.6262.
R 4: $1.6623/36/43 Daily Bolli top, 200-month MA, High Jan 23
R 3: $1.6603 Former reversal high Jan 2
R 2: $1.6526/33/36 Low Jan 29, High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
R 1: $1.6497/98 High Jan 9, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6480
S 1: $1.6439/45 High Jan 7, Low Jan 30
S 2: $1.6400/18 Low Jan 21, Redrawn July support line
S 3: $1.6357 38.2% $1.5855-1.6668
S 4: $1.6320/21 Daily Bolli band base, Low Dec 12
USD/JPY continues to hold above Nov 2012 support line which is key support at Y101.94 and a convergence of support is noted here, bears likely aim to retest today. Daily studies are now near oversold which adds a little upside risk, failure to break below Y102.00 could see bulls pare some losses. However, weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies overbought – meaning upside moves would limited. Initial resistance is at Y102.98 – the Jan 23 low.
R 4: Y103.91/104.08/09 Lows Jan 6, Jan 3, Jan 15
R 3: Y103.59/60 High Jan 24, 50.0% Y105.44-101.77 & Daily kijun line
R 2: Y103.30/46 55-DMA & Daily Tenkan, Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 1: Y102.98 Low Jan 23
Latest price: Y102.45
S 1: Y101.94/98 Nov 2012 support line, Daily Bolli band base
S 2: Y101.77 Low Jan 27
S 3: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y101.07/08 Daily Ichimoku cloud base, 100-DMA
EUR/JPY slides to Nov 2012 support line, initial suppt at Y138.51, just above dly Ichimoku cloud base and 50.0% Y131.22-145.69 at Y138.46. Bears look to break below this key level to the 100-DMA at Y137.50, however, daily studies are oversold and price action moves below dly Bolli band which suggests an upcoming correction higher. But wkly/mthly studies are bearish/overbought which may limit the upside – a Jan 2 res line is noted at Y141.34
R 4: Y141.26/32/34 High Jan 29, 21-DMA, Jan 2 resistance line
R 3: Y140.98/99/141.05 Low Dec 17, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12
R 2: Y140.54 Daily Tenkan line
R 1: Y139.95/140.03 High Jan 30, High Dec 3
Latest price: Y138.81
S 1: Y138.46/51 Cloud Base & 50.0% Y131.22-145.69, Nov 2012 suppt line
S 2: Y137.44/50 High Nov 22, 100-DMA
S 3: Y136.75/89 61.8% Y131.22-145.69, Jul 2009 reversal high
S 4: Y135.95 High Nov 20
