EUR/USD left a long lower shadow after bears tested support down to the $1.3600 level but closed just below the open. Daily studies may reverse lower and bears retarget the 100-DMA at $1.3601, just above the 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893 at $1.3594. However, further failure to break below to test the Sept 6 support line ($1.3556) could flip sentiment higher despite bearish weekly studies. Initial resistance is at $1.3666 – 5-DMA and hourly high.
R 4: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 3: $1.3725/39 Daily Bollinger band top, High Jan 24
R 2: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 1: $1.3666 5-DMA & Hourly high
Latets price: $1.3645
S 1: $1.3624/27 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832, 21-DMA
S 2: $1.3582/83/3601 Lows Jan 15, 16, 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3556 Sept 6 support line
S 4: $1.3524/29 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893, Daily Bolli band base
GBP/USD posts a lower high and low and lacks direction, bulls aim to retest $1.6668, Jan 24 high, and bears look to test the redrawn July support line at $1.6408. Daily studies stalled just below overbought – bears require a break below July support line to confirm a trend reversal and a sustained move below could see weekly/monthly studies reverse. However, failure to the downside likely encourages further gains – initial res is daily Bolli top at $1.6630
R 4: $1.6710 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6690 Sept 2013 Double-bottom measured move target
R 2: $1.6668 High Jan 24
R 1: $1.6630/36/43 Daily Bolli top, 200-month MA, High Jan 23
Latets price: $1.6554
S 1: $1.6526/33/36 Low Jan 29, High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
S 2: $1.6466/74/76 High Dec 10, 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 3: $1.6400/08 Low Jan 21, Redrawn July support line
S 4: $1.6357 38.2% $1.5855-1.6668
USD/JPY descends back to Nov 2012 support line at Y101.87 and daily studies slide further. Bulls aim to hold above to retest cloud top at Y103.05, however weekly studies also collapsing and monthly studies suggest upcoming reversal – bears target break below the support line and further losses could see sentiment flip lower to start a bear trend. We note the 200-DMA at Y100.03 which is a likely target, however ahead of here is 100-DMA at Y101.04.
R 4: Y103.59/60 High Jan 24, 50.0% Y105.44-101.77 & Daily kijun line
R 3: Y103.25/30 55-DMA. Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y103.05 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 1: Y102.49/53 Low Jan 28, Hourly high
Latest price: Y102.46
S 1: Y102.00/08 Low Jan 24, Daily Bolli band base
S 2: Y101.77/87 Low Jan 27, Support line from Nov 2012
S 3: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y100.89/101.04 Daily Ichimoku cloud base, 100-DMA
EUR/JPY falls back into the daily Ichimoku cloud and closes in on the long-term Nov 2012 support line seen at Y138.39. Bears target this level while weekly studies decline from overbought, but ahead of here initial support at Y139.39/43 – the hourly low and Feb 2005 high. Monthly studies are overbought and a break below the 50.0% and Nov 2012 support line could see them reverse, however daily studies are near oversold which may limit corrections lower.
R 4: Y141.52/56 Jan 2 resistance line, 21-DMA
R 3: Y140.98/99/141.05 Low Dec 17, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12
R 2: Y140.61/74 Daily Ichimoku cloud top, Daily Tenkan
R 1: Y139.95/140.03 Hourly high, High Dec 3
Latest price: Y139.84
S 1: Y139.39/43 Hourly low, Feb 2005 high
S 2: Y138.97/139.05 Lows Nov 29, Jan 29
S 3: Y138.39/46 Nov 2012 support line, 50.0% of Y131.22-145.69
S 4: Y137.35/38/44 100-DMA, Daily Ichimoku cloud base, High Nov 22
