EUR/USD declines slowly after bouncing from Sept 6 support line. Price action slips below the 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893 and yesterday tested the 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3893 at $1.3624. A break below targets support around $1.3600 followed by the key Sept support line at $1.3552, further losses could confirm a bearish trend, however, daily studies weakly rise and failure to retest Sept support line adds upside pressure – initial res is the 5-DMA at $1.3674.
R 4: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 3: $1.3739/45 High Jan 24, Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
R 1: $1.3674 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3662
S 1: $1.3624/32/38 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832, 21-DMA, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.3582/83/98 Lows Jan 15, 16, 100-DMA
S 3: $1.3552 Sept 6 support line
S 4: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD posts higher high and low but ended down which weighs on daily studies. Bulls pushed up to daily Bolli top but failed to break above, now daily studies are stalling near overbought while weekly/monthly studies look overbought. Bulls require a retest of $1.6668 Jan 24 high but failure here or to retest this level could shift sentiment south. Key support is redrawn July support line at $1.6397 but ahead of here is 21-DMA and 23.6% at $1.6475/76.
R 4: $1.6714 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6690 Sept 2013 Double-bottom measured move target
R 2: $1.6668 High Jan 24
R 1: $1.6633/36/43 Daily Bolli top, 200-month MA, High Jan 23
Latest price: $1.6580
S 1: $1.6533/36 High Dec 30, Low Jan 28
S 2: $1.6466/75/76 High Dec 10, 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 3: $1.6397/6400 Redrawn July support line, Low Jan 21
S 4: $1.6357 38.2% $1.5855-1.6668
USD/JPY turns higher after bouncing from just above the Nov 2012 support line – daily studies are trying to reverse higher adding upside risk and bulls aim to retest the Jan 2 reversal high at Y105.44. Ahead of here, resistance is at Y103.59/60 – Jan 24 high, daily Kijun line and a new 50.0% of Y105.44-101.77 – followed by res just above the Y104.00 level. However, weekly studies slide and bears look to retest the Nov 2012 support line at Y101.80.
R 4: Y104.99/105.06/12 Low Dec 30, Highs Jan 9, 8
R 3: Y104.55/57/59 Low Jan 2, 76.4% Y105.44-101.77, Low Jan 8
R 2: Y104.04/07/09 61.8% Y105.44-101.77, 21-DMA, Low Jan 15
R 1: Y103.59/60 High Jan 24, 50.0% Y105.44-101.77 & Daily kijun line
Latest price: Y103.31
S 1: Y102.89 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
S 2: Y102.45 Daily Bolli band base & 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
S 3: Y101.98/102.00 Lows Dec 3, Jan 24
S 4: Y101.77/80 Low Jan 27, Support line from Nov 2012
EUR/JPY moves back above the daily Ichimoku cloud and bulls now target the Jan 2 resistance line at Y141.70. Daily studies are mixed but may turn higher, however weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies overbought which likely limits any corrections higher. Despite this, a break above the Jan 2 res line targets the daily Kijun line at Y142.45, which is also the 50.0% of Y145.69-139.20, and above here is the daily Bolli band top at Y144.00.
R 4: Y142.91/143.04 Highs Jan 16, Jan 9
R 3: Y142.42/45 High Jan 23, Daily Kijun line
R 2: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
R 1: Y141.70/86 Jan 2 resistance line, 21-DMA
Latets price: Y141.13
S 1: Y140.35 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
S 2: Y140.16 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69 & Low Jan 28
S 3: Y139.71/73 High Nov 29, Daily Bolli band base
S 4: Y139.43 Feb 2005 high
