EUR/USD has stalled above the 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893 at $1.3665 and daily studies become mixed – 10-day momentum study flatlines around neutral. Bears require a break below the Sept 6 support line at $1.3548 to target a break to the July 2012 support line at $1.3168. Weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies near overbought – failure to retest the $1.3800 level encourages further corrections.
R 4: $1.3832/39 High Oct 28, Weekly Bolli band top
R 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 2: $1.3739/60 High Jan 24, Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.3698/99/3707 Highs Jan 23, 14, Low Dec 13
Latest price: $1.3677
S 1: $1.3660/65 Low Jan 24, 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 2: $1.3624/35/36 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832, 55-DMA, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.3582/83/94 Lows Jan 15, 16, 100-DMA
S 4: $1.3524/48 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893, Sept 6 support line
GBP/USD bounced from 21-DMA and 23.6% level to push back toward the daily Bolli top and Jan 24 high – now resistance at $1.6636 and $1.6668, respectively. Daily studies are whipsawing toward higher but weekly/monthly studies remain overbought. Bulls require a close above 200-month MA, also at $1.6636, to continue pushing higher, however bears focus on redrawn July support line at $1.6386 – a sustained break below could turn weekly studies lower.
R 4: $1.6726 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6690 Sept 2013 Double-bottom measured move target
R 2: $1.6668 High Jan 24
R 1: $1.6636/43 200-month MA & Daily Bolli band top, High Jan 23
Latest price: $1.6614
S 1: $1.6533 High Dec 30
S 2: $1.6466/75/76 High Dec 10, 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6668
S 3: $1.6386/6400 Redrawn July support line, Low Jan 21
S 4: $1.6357 38.2% $1.5855-1.6668
USD/JPY currently holds within the daily Ichimoku cloud while bears look to retest support around Y101.73/77 – the Nov 2012 support line and yesterday’s low. A close below here is required to confirm a new bearish trend but bulls focus on returning to the long-term 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35 at Y105.50 – a close above here would continue the bullish trend. However we remind that weekly studies are bearish and monthly studies overbought adding risk lower.
R 4: Y103.59/60 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44, Daily kijun line
R 3: Y103.35/39 Daily Tenkan line, High Dec 10
R 2: Y102.98/103.14 Low Jan 23, 55-DMA
R 1: Y102.81 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
Latest price: Y102.63
S 1: Y102.44/45 Daily Bolli base, 38.2% of Y97.62-105.43
S 2: Y101.98/102.00 Lows Dec 3, Jan 24
S 3: Y101.73/77 Support line from Nov 2012, Low Jan 27
S 4: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8 & 50.0% of Y97.62-105.44
EUR/JPY tested into the daily Ichimoku cloud but bounced from support – now holds above the 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69 and below the 55-DMA, initial support and resistance at Y140.16 and Y140.64, respectively. Daily studies are near oversold but still look weak while weekly studies are in sell-mode – bears aim to regain the daily Ichimoku cloud and target a July 2012 support line at Y138.49 – the pair remains in an uptrend while above this level.
R 4: Y142.02 21-day moving average
R 3: Y141.83/86 Highs Jan 22, 21
R 2: Y140.98/99/141.05 Low Dec 17, 61.8% Y169.96-94.12, Daily Tenkan
R 1: Y140.64/70 55-DMA, High Jan 27
Latest price: Y140.44
S 1: Y140.16 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69 & Hourly low
S 2: Y139.43/56 Feb 2005 high, Daily Bolli band base
S 3: Y139.20/22 Low Jan 27, Jun 2009 high
S 4: Y138.72 Aug 2009 high
