EUR/USD stalls below 100-DMA at $1.3580, now initial resistance alongside lows of Jan 15/16 at $1.3582/83, bulls look to close above to retest former July support line at $1.3638 however risk remains to lower while studies decline and monthly studies look overbought. Initial support seen as the Jan 20 low and 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893 at $1.3508/24, a level which held the downside already this week. A break below targets the daily Bolli base at $1.3487
R 4: $1.3699/3707/11 High Jan 14, Low Dec 13, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3638/39 Former Jul support line, 21-DMA
R 2: $1.3613/17 High Nov 27, 55-DMA
R 1: $1.3580/82/83 100-DMA, Lows Jan 15, 16
Latest price: $1.3545
S 1: $1.3508/24 Low Jan 20, 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 2: $1.3487 Daily Bollinger band base
S 3: $1.3458 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
S 4: $1.3437 76.4% of $1.3296-1.3893
GBP/USD spikes higher after closing above the July support line, bulls pushed up to test resistance just below the Jan 2 reversal high at $1.6603, now initial resistance just above daily Bolli top at $1.6587. Bulls aim to break above to test the 200-month MA at $1.6636, however downside pressure remains while weekly/monthly studies are overbought and another failure to close above $1.6600 likely sees studies reverse and targets the key 38.2% level at $1.6317.
R 4: $1.6711 Monthly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6656 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6636 200-month MA
R 1: $1.6587/6603 Daily Bolli band top, Reversal high Jan 2
Latest price: $1.6562
S 1: $1.6533 High Dec 30
S 2: $1.6494/97 5-DMA, High Jan 9
S 3: $1.6456/58 Former Jul 9 support line, 21-DMA
S 4: $1.6400 Low Jan 21
USD/JPY holds above Y104.00 level while bulls continue to test 21-DMA but fail to close above – further failure to make gains could see studies reverse. Daily studies are weakly rising while weekly studies look likely to turn lower from overbought. Initial support is at Y104.09/15 – the Jan 15 low and daily Kijun line, below here is daily Tenkan at Y103.89 followed by a new Nov 7 support line at Y103.75. A close below targets the Jan 13 low at Y102.86.
R 4: Y106.46 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
R 2: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 1: Y104.99/105.06/12 Low Dec 30, Highs Jan 9, 8
Latest price: Y104.30
S 1: Y104.09/15 Low Jan 15, Daily Kijun line
S 2: Y103.83/89 Low Jan 10, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y103.74/75 Reversal high May 22, Nov 7 support line
S 4: Y103.56/59 Daily Bolli base, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
EUR/JPY continues to close below daily Tenkan line despite testing above which adds a heavier tone. Further failure targets the convergence of support noted just above Y140.00 level which held the downside on Jan 20. Ahead of here initial support is at Y140.98/99 – Dec 17 low and 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12. A break below targets daily cloud top at Y140.05, daily Bolli base at Y140.11, 38.2% level at Y140.16 and 55-DMA at Y140.25.
R 4: Y142.91/143.01 High Jan 16, Daily Kijun line
R 3: Y142.61 21-day moving average
R 2: Y142.28/36 Former 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69, High Jan 13
R 1: Y141.86/92 High Jan 21, Hourly high
Latest price: Y141.31
S 1: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 2: Y140.33 Low Jan 20
S 3: Y140.16/20 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69, Oct 2005 high
S 4: Y139.43 Feb 2005 high
