Somebody once described a consensus as something that ‘everyone agrees tosay collectively that no-one believes individually.’ Given the relatively high levelof market unanimity over FX trades this year (we are no exception), it is hightime for a sanity check. We therefore reprise our fundamental FX scorecard,loosely based on the predictive schematic outlined by Nobel prizewinnerDaniel Kahneman. This allows for a degree of discretionary input, but we havechosen to omit this element in the interests of making the measuring stick astransparent as possible.
Read the full report: FX Daily
Deutsche Bank