EUR/USD fades from 21-DMA and bears now finding support from 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3893 at $1.3624, just below the hourly low. Bears still target key July support line, at $1.3601, a break below would accelerate losses to at least the Jan 9 low at $1.3549. Monthly studies remain near overbought, failure to test support levels likely targets 21-DMA again at $1.3675
R 4: $1.3785 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3752 Former 23.6% of $1.3296-1.3893
R 2: $1.3699/3707/11 High Jan 14, Low Dec 13, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 1: $1.3675 21-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3633
S 1: $1.3624/28 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832, Hourly low
S 2: $1.3594/3601 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893, Jul 9 support line
S 3: $1.3549/52/58 Low Jan 9, 21-week MA, 100-DMA
S 4: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S x: $1.2437/57 76.4% of $1.2043-1.3711, Apr 2009 reversal low
GBP/USD continues to pressure July support line and has barely tested below this level despite bearish daily studies and overbought weekly/monthly studies. Initial support now at $1.6387 and a break below targets the Jan 13/6 lows at $1.6347 and $1.6338 to start a move to test strong support around $1.6300 level – we see a close below here as confirming a new bearish trend. However, daily studies are near oversold and failure lower targets $1.6500.
R 4: $1.6603 Reversal high Jan 2
R 3: $1.6555 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6517 High Jan 10
R 1: $1.6443/44 High Dec 2, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6417
S 1: $1.6387 July 9 Support line
S 2: $1.6347 Low Jan 13
S 3: $1.6304/17 Daily Bolli base, 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603
S 4: $1.6286 55-day moving average
USD/JPY rebounded strongly to leave a higher high and low after closing above the Y104.00 level. Price action today holds below the 21-DMA as initial resistance at Y104.53 and above the daily Tenkan line as initial support at Y104.10. A break higher could see a return to Jan 2 high at Y105.44 while bears aim below Y104.00 to return to a bearish trend while weekly/monthly studies remain overbought, however daily studies show bullish potential
R 4: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
R 3: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 2: Y104.99/105.06/12 Low Dec 30, Highs Jan 9, 8
R 1: Y104.53 21-day moving average
Latest price: Y104.39
S 1: Y104.09/10 Hourly low, Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y103.80/83 Daily Kijun line, Low Jan 10
S 3: Y103.49/59 Daily Bolli base, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y102.86 Low Jan 13
EUR/JPY recovered back to the 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69 and now tests as initial support at Y142.28. Daily studies may have turned around further gains could see them reverse higher, however we note weekly/monthly studies remain overbought. Bulls likely target a break above the daily Kijun line at Y143.10 to return to the Y145.00 level, however, downside pressure remains and failure to break above Y143.00 targets a retest of the Jan 13 low at Y140.50.
R 4: Y145.00 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
R 2: Y143.10 Daily Kijun line
R 1: Y142.78/93 High Jan 6, 21-DMA
Latest price: Y142.35
S 1: Y142.25/28 Hourly low, 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69
S 2: Y141.91 Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y141.50 Low Jan 6
S 4: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
