EUR/USD now back above Jul 9 support line at $1.3582, a level which bears likely aim to test again, but key support is now seen as the 100-DMA at $1.3548 as it held the downside yesterday. A break below could accelerate losses to the 200-DMA at $1.3335, however, daily slow stochastic shows potential for a buy-signal while in oversold territory adding risk higher. Bulls require a break above resistance at $1.3635 and $1.3656 – the highs of Jan 8 and 7
R 4: $1.3707/11 Low Dec 13, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3685 21-day moving average
R 2: $1.3656 High Jan 7
R 1: $1.3633/35 Highs Jan 9, 8
Latest price: $1.3616
S 1: $1.3582/94 Jul 9 support line, 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 2: $1.3548/54 100-DMA, Low Jan 8
S 3: $1.3524 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893
S 4: $1.3458 38.2% of $1.2755-1.3893
GBP/USD pushed toward $1.6500 level where bulls met resistance to leave a high at $1.6497 – new initial resistance. A break above likely targets the $1.6603 Jan 2 reversal high, but ahead of here is the daily Bolli band top at $1.6572. However, while daily studies show some signs of reversing higher, we note weekly and monthly studies look overbought – any moves higher may be short-lived and we see a retest of the July support line in the medium-term.
R 4: $1.6635 200-month MA
R 3: $1.6603 Reversal high Jan 2
R 2: $1.6572 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6497 High Jan 9
Latest price: $1.6480
S 1: $1.6443 5-DMA & High Dec 2
S 2: $1.6426 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6603
S 3: $1.6411 21-DMA & Low Jan 2
S 4: $1.6352/60 July Support line, High Dec 13
USD/JPY still holds above the daily Tenkan line at Y104.68 despite testing below the previous two sessions – however, bulls failed to leave a higher high which may show sentiment is shifting south. Failure to retest the Y105.44 Jan 2 reversal high could send weekly and monthly studies south from overbought levels, but ahead of here is initial resistance around the Y105.00 level – further failure here targets the 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44 at Y103.59.
R 4: Y106.18 Resistance line from August 1998
R 3: Y105.85 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 1: Y104.99/105.06/12 Low Dec 30, Highs Jan 9, 8
Latest price: Y104.94
S 1: Y104.68 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y104.43 21-day moving average
S 3: Y103.91/104.08 Lows Jan 6, Jan 3
S 4: Y103.54/59 Daily Kijun line, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
EUR/JPY tests the 21-DMA at Y142.92 – the pair already edged above to an hourly high at Y142.96 but slipped back below. A close above could encourage bulls to target the Y145.69 high from Dec 27, however, further failure to close above Y143.00 level could retest the daily Kijun line which is key support at Y142.32. For now, Eur-yen ranges between these two levels but longer-term risk is lower as both weekly and monthly studies are overbought.
R 4: Y144.98 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
R 2: Y143.32/33 High Jan 3, Daily Tenkan line
R 1: Y143.04 High Jan 9
Latets price: Y142.80
S 1: Y142.28/32 23.6% of Y131.22-145.69, Daily Kijun
S 2: Y141.96/142.04 Lows Jan 3, 9
S 3: Y141.42/50 Low Dec 13, Low Jan 6
S 4: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
