EUR/USD bounced from just above the July support line at $1.3563 and key support. Bears look to test this level while daily studies slide, however we note momentum is turning higher on daily and weekly charts. A break below July support line would likely shift sentiment lower again and see bears test the 100-DMA and 61.8% level at $1.3541 and $1.3524, respectively. But bulls will aim to hold above the 50.0% level at $1.3594 to pressure the upside.
R 4: $1.3813/24 Rising channel base, Daily Bolli top
R 3: $1.3743 Former Nov 7 support line
R 2: $1.3707/10 Low Dec 13, 21-DMA
R 1: $1.3653/55 High Jan 6, 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.3620
S 1: $1.3594/96 50.0% of $1.3296-1.3893, Daily Bolli base
S 2: $1.3563 Support line from Jul 9
S 3: $1.3524/41 61.8% of $1.3296-1.3893, 100-DMA
S 4: $1.3462 Low Sept 25
GBP/USD leaves a long lower shadow after bouncing from support ahead of the 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603 and July support line, still key support at $1.6317/18. Bears target this level to break below while daily studies remain in sell-mode, 10-day momentum looks to slip into negative territory and form a sell-signal which would add further downside risk. However, failure to retest July suppt line encourages bulls and could retest the $1.6603 reversal high.
R 4: $1.6603 High Jan 2
R 3: $1.6555 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6484 High Dec 18
R 1: $1.6434/47 High Jan 6, 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.6389
S 1: $1.6358/60 High Nov 28, High Dec 13
S 2: $1.6317/18 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6603, July Support line
S 3: $1.6273 Former Monthly Triangle Top
S 4: $1.6244/51 Daily Bolli base, 55-DMA
USD/JPY holds above the Y104.00 level where we note a convergence of support – the 21-DMA is at Y104.15 and currently holds the downside. Just below are the recent Jan 6 and 3 lows at Y103.91 and Y104.08, respectively. A break below this level would target the daily Kijun line and 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44 at Y103.54/59, however, failure to break the Y104.00 barrier likely encourages bulls to retest the Y105.44 Jan 2 reversal high.
R 4: Y105.88 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y105.44/50 High Jan 2, 61.8% of Y124.14-Y75.35
R 2: Y104.95/98 High Jan 6, Low Dec 30
R 1: Y104.68 Daily Tenkan line
Latest price: Y104.44
S 1: Y104.08/15 Low Jan 3, 21-DMA
S 2: Y103.91 Low Jan 6
S 3: Y103.54/59 Daily Kijun line, 23.6% of Y97.62-105.44
S 4: Y102.95 High Dec 12
EUR/JPY slips back above the daily Kijun line despite bearish daily studies and overbought weekly/monthly studies – bulls now look to break above initial resistance to turn studies higher – initial res is at Y142.76/78, 21-DMA and Jan 6 high. However, sentiment is to the downside and bears likely aim to retest yesterday’s low at Y141.50 and a break below targets key support just below the Y141.00 level, then the daily Bolli base at Y140.49.
R 4: Y144.42 Low Jan 1
R 3: Y143.60 Daily Tenkan line
R 2: Y143.32 High Jan 3
R 1: Y142.76/78 21-DMA, High Jan 6
Latest price: Y142.20
S 1: Y141.42/50 Low Dec 13, Low Jan 6
S 2: Y140.98/99 Low Dec 17, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 3: Y140.49 Daily Bollinger band base
S 4: Y140.16/20 38.2% of Y131.22-145.69, Oct 2005 high
