EUR/USD: Despite the bounce from ahead of the Nov 7 support line and 55-DMA initial focus remains on retests of the $1.3614-18 region with correcting daily Slow Stochastic and RSI studies adding weight to the bearish case. A close above the $1.3832 2013 high is needed to end bearish aspirations and see overall focus shift higher to retests of the Oct 2011 $1.4241 monthly high. A close below $1.3614 sees potential for a deeper correction back to $1.3295 Nov monthly lows.
R 4: $1.3832 2013 High Oct 25
R 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 2: $1.3769 High Dec 13
R 1: $1.3709 Low Dec 13
Latest price: $1.3678
S 1: $1.3614/18 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811, Nov 7 support line
S 2: $1.3578 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832
S 3: $1.3554 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3521 Low Nov 26
A broad $1.6218-1.6484 range is expected to contain GBP/USD into the end of 2013 with the pair currently trading sideways in a narrower $1.6315-95 range. While the $1.6484 level caps a break lower that potentially targets the $1.5856 Nov monthly low remains favoured overall with a close at fresh 2013 highs needed to negate this view. Below $1.6218 sees immediate focus ratchet lower to the $1.6050 level
R 4: $1.6573 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6464/84 Daily Bolli band top, 2013 High Dec 18
R 2: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
R 1: $1.6395 High Dec 19
Latest price: $1.6351
S 1: $1.6336/38 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484, 21-DMA
S 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
S 3: $1.6244 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 4: $1.6218 Low Dec 17
USD/JPY continues to hold above initial support at the Y103.78 level with daily tech studies noted at very O/B levels. A close below Y103.78 is needed to see these studies come into effect and begin to correct lower with immediate focus shifting back to retests of the Y102.50 support. The upper 21 day Bollinger band comes in around Y104.49 today and it should be noted that closes above are a rarity with consecutive closes even more so.
R 4: Y105.82 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 2: Y104.63 2013 High Dec 20
R 1: Y104.49 Upper 21 day Bollinger band
Latest price: Y104.03
S 1: Y103.78 Low Dec 19
S 2: Y103.43 Daily Tenkan
S 3: Y102.95 23.6% of Y97.62-104.59
S 4: Y102.86 21-day moving average
EUR/JPY continues to remain supported ahead of the rising daily channel base with overbought tech studies noted. A close below the Y140.91/99 support region is needed to ease the current bullish pressure and see immediate focus shift lower to retests of the Y138.30-45 support region. Given the recent topside hesitation follow fresh 2013 and multi -year highs, a close above the Y142.90 level is needed to reconfirm bullish focus.
R 4: Y145.09 Rising channel top
R 3: Y144.52 3% 21-DMA envelope top
R 2: Y143.85 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
Latest price: Y142.34
S 1: Y141.86/91 Hourly support, Channel base, Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y141.69/71 High Dec 11, Channel base
S 3: Y141.22 Low Dec 16
S 4: Y140.91/99 Low Dec 11, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
