EUR/USD fades after failed break above $1.3800 on Weds, daily studies in sell-mode and bears look to break below key initial support from 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811 and Nov 7 support line at $1.3614/18. A break and close below could start a slide to 200-DMA at $1.3276, and a long-term support line seen around $1.3080, but ahead of here key suppt just below $1.3500. However, failure at Nov 7 suppt line could see bulls return while monthly studies rise.
R 4: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 3: $1.3769 High Dec 13
R 2: $1.3702/09 5-DMA, Low Dec 13
R 1: $1.3675/81 Low Dec 18, Reversal high Apr 2007
Latest price: $1.3633
S 1: $1.3614/18 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811, Nov 7 support line
S 2: $1.3578 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832
S 3: $1.3554 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3493/97 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832, 100-DMA
GBP/USD continues to hold above the new 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484, initial support alongside the 21-DMA at $1.6333/36. Bears aim to break below here while weekly studies look overbought and likely look to test the July support line at $1.6179 – but first need to break through support at $1.6244, the 38.2% level. However, failure to test the July support line adds risk higher and would show bullish pressure which could see a retest of $1.6484 Dec 18 high.
R 4: $1.6583 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6473/84 Daily Bolli band top, High Dec 18
R 2: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
R 1: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
Latest price: $1.6355
S 1: $1.6333/36 21-DMA, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
S 3: $1.6244 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
USD/JPY continues to stretch higher despite overbought studies and has managed to hold above the Y104.00 level for the past three sessions. Bulls continue to eye the topside and already tested above the daily Bolli top at Y104.48 – above here now is the 2% 21-DMA envelope top at Y104.79. However, failure at resistance could send studies lower to test support below the Y104.00 level – Dec 13 high is at Y103.92 and the daily Tenkan line is at Y103.38.
R 4: Y105.82 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 2: Y104.79 2% 21-day MA envelope top
R 1: Y104.59 Hourly high
Latest price: Y104.41
S 1: Y103.92 High Dec 13
S 2: Y103.38/55 Daily Tenkan, Nov 7 support line
S 3: Y102.95 23.6% of Y97.62-104.59
S 4: Y102.74 21-day moving average
EUR/JPY continues to trade just below the Y142.90 high from Dec 18 which is key initial resistance – a break above likely targets the daily Bolli band top at Y143.80, however studies are mainly overbought and failure to break above Y143.00 likely sees bears take control. Initial support is the daily Tenkan line at Y141.91 and just below is the rising channel base at Y141.71. A close below the channel base would open the downside to further losses.
R 4: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
R 3: Y144.52 3% 21-DMA envelope top
R 2: Y143.80/99 Daily Bolli top, Rising channel top
R 1: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
Latest price: Y142.38
S 1: Y141.91 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y141.69/71 High Dec 11, Channel base
S 3: Y141.22 Low Dec 16
S 4: Y140.99 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
