EUR/USD rose to retest $1.3811 high and met strong resistance to leave a mini double-top before sinking through support – double-top targets a move to $1.3607 which is also a Nov 7 support line. Daily studies turned south but bulls may retest the channel base as resistance at $1.3707, however failure here adds downside pressure. A break below $1.3608/14 could confirm a bearish trend and see a move to strong support around $1.3493 – the 61.8% and 100-DMA.
R 4: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 3: $1.3811 Highs Dec 11 & Dec 18
R 2: $1.3724 5-day moving average
R 1: $1.3707/09 Former channel base, Low Dec 13
Latest price: $1.3665
S 1: $1.3650 21-DMA & Hourly low
S 2: $1.3608/14 Nov 7 support line, 38.2% of $1.3296-1.3811
S 3: $1.3578 23.6% of $1.2755-1.3832
S 4: $1.3554 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD burst higher to hit $1.6484 and test the daily Bolli band top but also left a decent upper shadow which cautions bulls. Further gains could see daily studies reverse higher, however we note weekly studies remain overbought and the weekly chart shows an outside-week candle. Bears continue to eye the July support line now at $1.6167, but we also remind monthly studies remain bullish so we may see a retest of resistance in the longer-term
R 4: $1.6586 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6476/84 Daily Bolli band top, High Dec 18
R 2: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
R 1: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
Latest price: $1.6372
S 1: $1.6336 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 2: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
S 3: $1.6244 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6484
S 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
USD/JPY also stormed higher to hit Y104.36 which was yesterday’s 2% 21-day MA envelope top which has moved up to Y104.62. Daily studies have no directions while weekly-monthly studies look bullish but overbought. A break above yesterday’s high targets the 2% envelope top and above here resistance becomes thin up – the 61.8% of Y124.14-75.35 is at Y105.50. Downside pressure remains and bears eye the daily Tenkan and Nov 7 support line at Y103.26/36.
R 4: Y105.65 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 2: Y104.62 2% 21-day MA envelope top
R 1: Y104.36 High Dec 18
Latest price: Y104.16
S 1: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
S 2: Y103.26/36 Daily Tenkan, Nov 7 support line
S 3: Y102.77 23.6% of Y97.62-104.36
S 4: Y102.57 21-day moving average
EUR/JPY moves up to test resistance just below the Y143.00 level – new high is made at Y142.90 which bulls look to retest, however we remind that studies are all overbought and further failure to break above Y143.00 adds downside risk. Initial support is the daily Tenkan line at Y141.79 and below here is Nov 8 channel base at Y141.36 then key support is seen just above the Y140.00 level from the 23.6% at Y140.14 and 21-DMA at Y140.02.
R 4: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
R 3: Y144.22 3% 21-DMA envelope top
R 2: Y143.64/73 Rising channel top, Daily Bolli top
R 1: Y142.83/90 Highs Dec 13, 18
Latest price: Y142.13
S 1: Y141.69/79 High Dec 11, Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y141.22/36 Low Dec 16, Channel base
S 3: Y140.99 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 4: Y140.02/14 21-DMA, 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83
