EUR/USD failed to leaves a lower high after failing to close above the $1.3800 and also failing to test $1.3832 – Oct 28 reversal high. Daily studies are overbought and we note a potential bearish engulfing reversal pattern, a close lower today around the channel base at $1.3675 should confirm. A break below channel base would challenge 23.6% at $1.3660 and a close under could flip sentiment lower. However, rising wkly/mthly studies caution bears.
R 4: $1.3852/66 High Jul 2007, Monthly Bolli band top
R 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 2: $1.3795/3803 High Dec 10, High Dec 12
R 1: $1.3757/60 5-DMA, Hourly high
Latest price: $1.3750
S 1: $1.3734/41 Lows Dec 10, 11
S 2: $1.3704 High Oct 18
S 3: $1.3675/81 Rising channel base, Reversal high Apr 2007
S 4: $1.3660 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD struggles to break below 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466 – initial support at $1.6322. Daily studies decline from overbought and show sell-signals while weekly studies also O/B – a break below 23.6% targets 21-DMA and Dec 6 low at $1.6285/94, respectively. Bears may target July support line in the med-term, at $1.6121 and rising around 12 pips a day. A break below would likely start a trend lower but bulls may use this level from which to stage a recovery.
R 4: $1.6466/71 High Dec 10, High July 2011
R 3: $1.6428 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503
R 2: $1.6401 Jan 2013 reversal high
R 1: $1.6387 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.6340
S 1: $1.6322 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466
S 2: $1.6285/94 21-DMA, Low Dec 6
S 3: $1.6233 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6466
S 4: $1.6200 High Nov 21
USD/JPY soars to a new high of Y103.92 while bulls continue to pressure the Y104.00 level. A break above here would run into the daily Bolli band top at Y104.19 then resistance above is thin until the Y105.00 level where we note the 3% 21-day MA top lies. However, failure to close above Y104.00 could see bears take control as studies are overbought – we note a new support line seen at Y102.60. Despite this, studies remain bullish – adding risk higher.
R 4: Y105.50 61.8% Fibonacci of Y124.14 to Y75.35
R 3: Y105.00 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y104.19 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y103.92/98 Hourly high, 2% 21-day MA envelope top
Latest price: Y103.69
S 1: Y103.33 High Dec 9
S 2: Y102.95 High Dec 12
S 3: Y102.77 Daily Tenkan line
S 4: Y102.43 23.6% of Y97.62-103.92
EUR/JPY pushes higher to break above Y142.00 and extend gains to a new high at Y142.83. Studies are stretching further into overbought territory and bulls now look to test the Y143.00 level and rise above to the daily Bolli band top at Y143.58. However, failure to make gains above Y143.00 could add risk lower while studies continue to look so overbought. Support is thin until the daily Tenkan line at Y140.63 and the new 23.6% of Y131.22-142.83 at Y140.09.
R 4: Y145.49 Reversal high Apr 2006
R 3: Y144.28 4% 21-DMA envelope top
R 2: Y143.58 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y142.83/89 Hourly high, 3% 21-DMA envelope top
Latest price: Y142.61
S 1: Y142.14/17 Hourly low, High Dec 10
S 2: Y141.69 High Dec 11
S 3: Y140.92/99 Low Dec 11, 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
S 4: Y140.63 Daily Tenkan line
