EUR/USD pushed up to test resistance just below the $1.3800 level and left a long upper-shadow, bulls look to retest this key level and break above to the Oct 28 reversal high at $1.3832. However, failure at $1.3800 or failure to retest adds downside risk while daily studies are overbought. Bears look to return to the channel base seen at $1.3658, just below the 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832 seen at $1.3660 – ahead of here is the 5-DMA at $1.3727.
R 4: $1.3852 High Jul 2007
R 3: $1.3832 High Oct 28
R 2: $1.3793/95 High Oct 23, Dec 10
R 1: $1.3769/77 Daily Bolli band top, Monthly Ichimoku top
Latest price: $1.3756
S 1: $1.3727/34 5-DMA, Low Dec 10
S 2: $1.3681 Reversal high Apr 2007
S 3: $1.3658/60 Channel base, 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3637 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
GBP/USD made a new monthly high but failed to extend gains to test $1.6500 level, bulls target here while monthly studies rise. However, dly/wkly studies remain overbought and failure to retest the Dec 10 high at $1.6466, or June 2011 high at $1.6496, could switch sentiment to the downside. Bears aim to break below the 23.6% at $1.6322 to test the Dec 6 low at $1.6393. Further losses below here could see a decline to the July support line at $1.6098.
R 4: $1.6585 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6527 Daily Bollinger band top
R 2: $1.6496 High June 2011
R 1: $1.6466/71 High Dec 10, High July 2011
Latest price: $1.6434
S 1: $1.6401/04 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
S 2: $1.6358 High Nov 28
S 3: $1.6322 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6466
S 4: $1.6301 Low Dec 5
USD/JPY slips below the channel base again after fading from the new monthly high at Y103.39 – bulls aim to retest this level but daily studies now appear to be reversing lower and initial support is seen at Y102.51, the daily Tenkan. Bears look to break below the Dec 6 low at Y101.64 to confirm the mini double-top reversal pattern which would target a measured move to the psychological Y100.00 level where strong support is expected
R 4: Y103.97 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 2: Y103.38/39 Highs Dec 3, 10
R 1: Y103.18 Nov 8 channel base
Latest price: Y102.71
S 1: Y102.51 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
S 3: Y101.59/64 21-DMA, Low Dec 6
S 4: Y101.18 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38
EUR/JPY reached a new high yesterday at Y142.17 but now fades back into the rising channel while daily studies show signs of turning lower. Weekly and monthly studies are also overbought and could turn lower – bears look to break below daily Tenkan line at Y140.30 before testing support around Y140.00 level and below here is the 23.6% of Y131.22-142.17 at Y139.59. However, failure to descend to these levels would encourage bulls to retest the Dec 10 high.
R 4: Y143.48 4% 21-DMA envelope top
R 3: Y143.24 Potential measured move target
R 2: Y142.84 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y142.17 High Dec 10
Latest price: Y141.35
S 1: Y141.05 High Dec 6
S 2: Y140.52 Weekly Bollinger band top
S 3: Y140.20/30 Oct 2005 high, Daily Tenkan
S 4: Y140.03 High Dec 3
