EUR/USD pops above the Nov 29 high and 61.8%, former resistance at $1.3622/27, and now trades just below Apr 2007 reversal high at $1.3681. Bulls eye break above to test 76.4% of $1.3832-1.3296, further res at $1.3706. However, daily studies still overbought and bears eye a retest of channel base at $1.3634. But weekly studies may turn higher and monthly studies still carry a bullish tone – break above $1.3700 level targets retest of $1.3832.
R 4: $1.3786 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.3742 Low Oct 23
R 2: $1.3706/11 76.4% $1.3832-1.3296, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 1: $1.3681/84 Reversal high Apr 2007, Daily Bolli top
Latest price: $1.3659
S 1: $1.3627/34 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296, Channel base
S 2: $1.3598 High Oct 14
S 3: $1.3568 55-day moving average
S 4: $1.3514/28 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
GBP/USD passes through the Nov 13 support line to test the 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443 – key initial support at $1.6304. A break below here could start a move to the key July support line, now at $1.6063. Daily studies are reversing lower and weekly studies remain overbought/bearish – ahead of Jul support line is the 38.2% at $1.6218 and 55-DMA at $1.6123. However, monthly studies point higher and retest of Nov support line could see break to Dec 2 high at $1.6443.
R 4: $1.6443 High Dec 2
R 3: $1.6401/044 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
R 2: $1.6370 Nov 13 support line
R 1: $1.6358 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.6318
S 1: $1.6301/04 Low Dec 5, 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
S 2: $1.6260 High Oct 1
S 3: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
S 4: $1.6194/6200 21-DMA, High Nov 21
USD/JPY recovers some of the recent losses to trade back above the former 23.6% at Y102.02 – initial resistance now seen at Y102.26, the daily Tenkan line. Daily studies are still bearish but further gains would encourage bulls as weekly studies show signs of slowing but yet to reverse. However, downside channel breakout targets a move to Y100.92 which is just below 21-DMA at Y101.02 and failure at resistance likely confirms the start of a correction.
R 4: Y103.38 High Dec 3
R 3: Y102.89 High May 21
R 2: Y102.50 Nov 8 channel base
R 1: Y102.26 Daily Tenkan line
Latest price: Y102.09
S 1: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8
S 2: Y101.02/18 21-DMA, 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38
S 3: Y100.50 50.0% of Y97.62-103.38 & Daily Kijun
S 4: Y99.82 61.8% of Y97.62-103.38
EUR/JPY bounced from the daily Tenkan line yesterday to leave a long-legged doji – bulls today look to break above the previous two session highs and likely eye a retest of the Y140.03 Dec 3 high. A retest of this level would encourage bulls but failure here could see bears take control while studies look overbought. Bears aim to test the rising channel base at Y138.24 and a break below here targets the 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03 at Y137.95
R 4: Y141.38 Daily Bollinger band top
R 3: Y140.52 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
R 2: Y140.03 High Dec 3
R 1: Y139.71 High Nov 29
Latest price: Y139.48
S 1: Y138.95/97 Hourly low, Low Nov 29
S 2: Y138.43/58 Low Dec 4, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y138.24 Rising channel base from Nov 8
S 4: Y137.95 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03
