EUR/USD declined to test previous two session lows around $1.3525 but failed to break below to retest Nov 7 support line at $1.3504. Bears require break below to flip sentiment south, daily studies look a little overbought and could reverse also. However, bulls aim to regain the rising channel and eye the key 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296 at $1.3627, now initial res just above the channel base at $1.3626, break above targets 76.4% at $1.3706.
R 4: $1.3706/11 76.4% $1.3832-1.3296, Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
R 2: $1.3654 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.3626/27 Channel base, 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296
Latest price: $1.3602
S 1: $1.3554/64 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.3504/14 Nov 7 support line, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.3469 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 & Daily Ichimoku base
S 4: $1.3442 100-day moving average
GBP/USD still holds above the short-term support line from Nov 13, now at $1.6341 and initial support. A break below could see a slide to July support line at $1.6052, especially while daily/weekly studies look overbought. We also note 10-week momentum’s bear-divergence since September also adds to the downside. However, yesterday’s long lower-shadow cautions bears and we may see a retest of the double-day high at $1.6437/43 – Dec 3 and 2 highs, respectively.
R 4: $1.6543 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6470/96 Daily Bolli band top, High June 2011
R 2: $1.6443 High Dec 2
R 1: $1.6401/044 Highs Mar 2011, Dec 4
Latest price: $1.6378
S 1: $1.6341 Nov 13 support line
S 2: $1.6304 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
S 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
S 4: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
USD/JPY slips below the channel base after bears tried to close below yesterday – daily studies appear to be reversing lower and we look for a close below the Y102.02 level to confirm, a close below yesterday’s low at Y101.82 would encourage bears further. However, bulls may look to close back within the rising channel. The downside channel breakout, if confirmed, targets a measured move to Y100.91 and a move to this level threatens the Y100.00 level.
R 4: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 3: Y103.58/65 Daily Bolli top, Rising channel top
R 2: Y103.38 High Dec 3
R 1: Y102.89 High May 21
Latest price: Y102.01
S 1: Y101.82 Low Dec 4
S 2: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8
S 3: Y101.18 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38
S 4: Y100.85 21-day moving average
EUR/JPY posts another lower high and lower low after failing to retest the Y140.00 level – bulls still eye above here but daily studies are beginning to slip and weekly/monthly studies are overbought. Bears eye the channel base at Y137.90 just below the 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03 at Y137.95, a key support level. A break below here would confirm a new bearish tone and likely see a move to the 50.0% at Y135.63 which is also the daily Kijun line.
R 4: Y141.28 Daily Bolli band top
R 3: Y140.17/20 Channel top, Oct 2005 high
R 2: Y140.03 High Dec 3
R 1: Y139.43 Feb 2005 high
Latest price: Y139.05
S 1: Y138.72/79 Aug 2009 high, Hourly low
S 2: Y138.43/52 Low Dec 4, Daily Tenkan line
S 3: Y137.90/95 Channel base, 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03
S 4: Y137.35 High Nov 22
