EUR/USD regained losses to retest rising channel base as resistance – still initial res at $1.3618. Bulls target a break within the channel but a series of lower highs from Nov 29 high at $1.3622 cautions bulls. A break above here targets the 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296 at $1.3627 and above here is dly Bolli top at $1.3644. However, daily slow stochastic looks overbought and failure to break into channel targets Nov 7 suppt line at $1.3494.
R 4: $1.3694 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
R 2: $1.3644 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.3618 Channel base from Jul 10 low
Latest price: $1.3587
S 1: $1.3554 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 2: $1.3509 21-day moving average
S 3: $1.3494 Nov 7 support line
S 4: $1.3469 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 & Daily Ichimoku base
GBP/USD continues to pressure recent high at $1.6443 while attempting to close above the long-term 38.2% of $2.1161-1.3503, still at $1.6428, however downside pressure left two long upper shadows which adds risk lower. Failure to retest $1.6443 could see overbought studies reverse – a short-term support line is at $1.6312 and a break below could target July support line at $1.6040. However, monthly chart is bullish which may limit the downside.
R 4: $1.6545 Weekly Bollinger band top
R 3: $1.6496 High June 2011
R 2: $1.6443/47 High Dec 2, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: $1.6401 High Mar 2011
Latest price: $1.6381
S 1: $1.6370/78 5-DMA, Hourly low
S 2: $1.6304/12 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443, Nov 13 support line
S 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
S 4: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
USD/JPY posts an outside-day which has the potential to form a dark cloud cover reversal pattern – bears yesterday bounced from the 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38 seen at Y102.02 where a convergence of levels is noted including the rising channel base at Y102.05. A break below here could see studies reverse south and target the 50.0% level at Y100.50. However, the pair remains within the rising channel and we may see bulls retest yesterday’s high at Y103.38.
R 4: Y104.72 4% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 2: Y103.38/42 High Dec 3, Rising channel top
R 1: Y102.89 High May 21
Latest price: Y102.58
S 1: Y102.17 Daily Tenkan line
S 2: Y102.02/05 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38, Nov 8 channel base
S 3: Y101.53 Reversal high Jul 8
S 4: Y101.18 38.2% of Y97.62-103.38
EUR/JPY left a long-legged doji outside day candle which pushed up to test the Y140.00 level before closing back within the rising channel from Nov 8. The channel top becomes initial resistance at Y139.83 and bulls may break above to retest the Dec 3 high at Y140.03. However, studies look overbought and failure to retest the key Y140.00 level adds downside risk. Yesterday’s low is at Y138.70 and below here is the 23.6% and daily Tenkan line at Y137.95/138.02.
R 4: Y141.04 Daily Bolli band top
R 3: Y140.20 Oct 2005 high
R 2: Y140.03 High Dec 3
R 1: Y139.83 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
Latest price: Y139.40
S 1: Y138.94/97 Hourly low, Low Nov 29
S 2: Y138.70 Low Dec 3
S 3: Y138.49 Oct 2009 high
S 4: Y137.95/138.02 23.6% of Y131.22-140.03, Daily Tenkan
