EUR/USD fades from support around the daily Bolli band top and 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296 at $1.3627 – the pair descended through the channel base and now bears eye the Nov 7 support line at $1.3483. we note daily studies are reversing south adding risk lower – a break below could flip sentiment to the downside and target the 200-DMA at $1.3232, however bulls will aim to close back within the rising channel from Jul 10 low, the base is key res at $1.3610
R 4: $1.3661 Daily Ichimoku cloud top
R 3: $1.3627 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296 & Daily Bolli top
R 2: $1.3610 Channel base from Jul 10 low
R 1: $1.3561/71 55-DMA, 5-DMA
Latest price: $1.3544
S 1: $1.3501 21-day moving average
S 2: $1.3483 Nov 7 support line
S 3: $1.3469 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832 & Daily Ichimoku base
S 4: $1.3432 100-day moving average
GBP/USD pushed higher to $1.6443 before bears took control to end the session lower – the long upper-shadow adds some risk lower and could form a reversal pattern if bears take control. Daily/weekly studies look overbought and may turn lower – a new short-term support line is at $1.6283 and a break below could turn sentiment south. Initial support is $1.6344/47 – the 5-DMA and hourly low. However, monthly studies rise and a retest of $1.6443 encourages bulls.
R 4: $1.6496 High June 2011
R 3: $1.6443 High Dec 2
R 2: $1.6411 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: $1.6381/84 Reversal high Jan 2013, High Nov 29
Latest price: $1.6367
S 1: $1.6344/47 5-DMA, Hourly low
S 2: $1.6304 23.6% of $1.5855-1.6443
S 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
S 4: $1.6218 38.2% of $1.5855-1.6443
USD/JPY pushed higher after showing a little weakness early yesterday session – bulls now look to close above the May 17 high at Y103.31, just below the hourly high of Y103.38. A close above here likely threatens a test of the May 22 reversal high at Y103.74, however failure ahead of here could see overbought studies reverse to the downside, key support seen at Y101.83, the Nov 8 channel base and ahead of here is the 23.6% at Y102.02.
R 4: Y104.55 4% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 2: Y103.52/55 Daily Bolli top, 3% 21-day MA env top
R 1: Y103.31/38 High May 17, Hourly high
Latest price: Y103.24
S 1: Y102.83/89 Hourly low, High May 21
S 2: Y102.54 2% 21-day MA envelope top
S 3: Y102.02 23.6% of Y97.62-103.38
S 4: Y101.83 Nov 8 channel base
EUR/JPY continues to squeeze higher and test resistance above the rising channel – bulls left an hourly high at Y139.94, just below the psychological Y140.00 level and a break above here could see a push up to the Oct 2005 high at Y140.20 – above here is daily Bolli top at Y140.80. However, studies are still overbought and failure to break the Y140.00 level could see a heavy tone takeover – initial support is at Y139.43 – the Feb 2005 high.
R 4: Y140.99 61.8% of Y169.96-94.12
R 3: Y140.80 Daily Bolli band top
R 2: Y140.20 Oct 2005 high
R 1: Y139.94/140.00 Hourly high, Psychological level
Latest price: Y139.83
S 1: Y139.43 Feb 2005 high
S 2: Y138.97 Low Nov 29
S 3: Y138.46 3% 21-DMA envelope top
S 4: Y137.88 23.6% of Y131.22-139.94
