EUR/USD eases itself into the rising channel as it slips above the base to test the daily Ichimoku cloud top at $1.3599 and above is new 61.8% at $1.3627. Bullish pressure remains as daily studies inch higher but still look overbought and 10-day momentum actually shows a little bear divergence. Failure to close within the channel could see bears resume control – a new support line seen at $1.3442 drawn from Nov 7 low but ahead of here is the 21-DMA at $1.3504.
R 4: $1.3681/82 Reversal high Apr 2007, High Oct 17
R 3: $1.3660 Daily Bolli band top, 23.6% of $1.3105-1.3832
R 2: $1.3627 61.8% of $1.3832-1.3296
R 1: $1.3599 Hourly high, Daily Ichimoku top
Latest price: $1.3588
S 1: $1.3554 38.2% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 2: $1.3504 21-day moving average
S 3: $1.3469 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3400/13 High Aug 8, 100-DMA
GBP/USD posted an inside-day after bulls failed to retest Nov 25 high at $1.6240 while bulls continue to focus on $1.6260 reversal highs. Daily studies mixed and overbought – failure to regain this level adds further downside pressure and could see bears test redrawn Jul support line at $1.5982. Support ahead of here at $1.6134, Nov 25 low, and at $1.6070/81 – 55 and 21-day MAs. However, monthly studies are still bullish which may limit downside moves
R 4: $1.6381 Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
R 2: $1.6260/61 High Oct 1, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: $1.6240 High Nov 25
Latest price: $1.6220
S 1: $1.6134/39 Lows Nov 25, 26
S 2: $1.6081 21-day moving average
S 3: $1.6064/70 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 55-DMA
S 4: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
USD/JPY still holds below Y102.00 level after hitting a high of Y101.92 on Nov 25 and still key resistance. Weekly studies rise and a break above here could see the start of a run up to Y103.74 – the May 22 reversal high. However, daily and monthly studies look overbought adding downside risk, bears look to test the rising channel base at Y100.92 and break below to the 38.2% at Y100.28, but ahead of here initial support at Y101.14 – Nov 25 low
R 4: Y102.50/53 Highs May 28, 29
R 3: Y102.29 Rising channel top
R 2: Y101.92/94 High Nov 25, Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y101.73 High Nov 25
Latest price: Y101.50
S 1: Y101.14 Low Nov 25
S 2: Y100.91/92 23.6% of Y97.62-101.92, Nov 8 channel base
S 3: Y100.74 Daily Tenkan
S 4: Y100.28 38.2% of Y97.62-101.92
EUR/JPY pushing higher already to test the rising channel top at Y138.09 and leave a new high at Y138.16. Bulls will be looking to break back above to daily Bolli top at Y138.20, however studies continue to look overbought and we await to see if bulls can sustain a run above Y138.00. Failure to close above adds downside risk and could reverse studies, new 23.6% of Y131.22-138.16 seen at Y136.52, but ahead of here is the 2% 21-DMA envelope top at Y137.32.
R 4: Y138.68/72 3% 21-day MA envelope top, Aug 2009 high
R 3: Y138.49 Oct 2009 high
R 2: Y138.25 Daily Bollinger band top
R 1: Y138.09/16 Rising channel top, Hourly high
Latest price: Y137.8
S 1: Y137.29/32 Hourly low, 2% 21-day MA envelope top
S 2: Y137.02 Low Nov 25
S 3: Y136.89 Jul 2009 reversal high
S 4: Y136.39/40 23.6% of Y131.22-137.99, High Nov 21
