EUR/USD continues to trade below channel base but with bulls pressuring the upside, however weekly studies show continued bear-divergence which adds risk lower. A break into channel should see bulls retest resistance around $1.3600 and Oct 34 high at $1.3646, however failure to break channel base could reverse sentiment. Key support at $1.3400/07 – the Aug 8 high and 100-DMA. Break below here targets first the Nov 7 low at $1.3296 then 200-DMA at $1.3221.
R 4: $1.3646 High Oct 3
R 3: $1.3598 High Oct 14
R 2: $1.3579 High Nov 20
R 1: $1.3569 Channel base from Jul 10 low
Latest price: $1.3528
S 1: $1.3505/09 5-DMA, 21-DMA
S 2: $1.3469 Former 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 3: $1.3400/07 High Aug 8, 100-DMA
S 4: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
GBP/USD fades from the daily Bolli band top also just below the key top at $1.6260 from the highs in Sept and Oct – further losses may form a triple-top pattern with a break below $1.5900 needed to confirm the reversal pattern. Daily studies suggest a potential reversal lower and 10-week momentum continues to show negative divergence – key support seen around $1.6064/69, the 23.6% level and 21-DMA, also the 55-DMA at $1.6062.
R 4: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
R 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 2: $1.6225/29 High Oct 18, Daily Bolli band top
R 1: $1.6200/03 High Nov 21, High Sept 30
Latest price: $1.6150
S 1: $1.6134 Low Nov 25
S 2: $1.6064/69 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
S 4: $1.5943 38.2% of $1.5429-1.6260
USD/JPY finally shows a little bearishness after pressuring the daily Bolli band top and channel top for the past few sessions. Daily Bolli top is now initial resistance at 101.77 with the Nov 25 high above at Y101.92, just below strong resistance around Y102.00. Bulls may look to retest this level but daily studies look overbought adding risk lower – key support at Y101.91, the 23.6% of Y97.62-101.92 and below here is Tenkan and channel base at Y100.53/69.
R 4: Y102.50/53 Highs May 28, 29
R 3: Y102.06/08 Rising channel top, Low May 21
R 2: Y101.92/97 High Nov 25, Low May 20
R 1: Y101.77 Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y101.50
S 1: Y101.14 Low Nov 25
S 2: Y100.91 23.6% of Y97.62-101.92
S 3: Y100.53/69 Daily Tenkan, Nov 8 channel base
S 4: Y100.28 38.2% of Y97.62-101.92
EUR/JPY pushed above the channel top and daily Bolli band to leave a high at Y137.99 – new further resistance which bulls look to retest. However, studies are looking overbought and daily studies could reverse lower if bears prevail today. Initial support seen at Y137.14/18 – the hourly low and 2% 21-DMA envelope top, a break below here then sees support at Y137.02 and then Y136.39, the Nov 25 low and 23.6% of Y131.22-137.99
R 4: Y138.72 Aug 2009 high
R 3: Y138.49/52 Oct 2009 high, 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 2: Y137.99 High Nov 25
R 1: Y137.75 Rising channel top & Daily Bolli top
Latest price: Y137.38
S 1: Y137.14/18 Hourly low, 2% 21-day MA envelope top
S 2: Y137.02 Low Nov 25
S 3: Y136.89 Jul 2009 reversal high
S 4: Y136.39/40 23.6% of Y131.22-137.99, High Nov 21
