EUR/USD managed to retest the channel base on Friday and is capped by the same level today – now at $1.3561. Bulls look to break above to close back within the rising channel, however bears aim to keep the pair below. Failure to close within adds downside pressure – key support at $1.3469, the 50.0% level and below is strong support around $1.3400 – the 100-DMA and Nov 21 low. Break below targets first the Nov 7 low at $1.3296 then 200-DMA at $1.3221.
R 4: $1.3646 High Oct 3
R 3: $1.3598 High Oct 14
R 2: $1.3579 High Nov 20
R 1: $1.3561 Channel base from Jul 10 low
Latest price: $1.3537
S 1: $1.3523/33 21-DMA, 55-DMA
S 2: $1.3512 5-day moving average
S 3: $1.3469 Former 50.0% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3399/3400 100-DMA, High Aug 8
GBP/USD still pushing higher now rises above the $1.6200 level and finds resistance from daily Bolli top – currently caps at $1.6240. A break above would challenge Oct 1 reversal high of $1.6260 where strong downside pressure is expected. Failure here forms a triple-top pattern, the base is at $1.5855 which would trigger a measured move to $1.5650. Daily studies are still bullish and a bit overbought – ahead of $1.5855 support also around $1.6064, the 23.6% level.
R 4: $1.6381 Reversal high Jan 2013
R 3: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
R 2: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 1: $1.6240 Daily Bolli band top & Hourly high
Latest price: $1.6205
S 1: $1.6200/03 High Nov 21, High Sept 30
S 2: $1.6149 5-DMA, High Nov 18
S 3: $1.6064/72 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 21-DMA
S 4: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
USD/JPY continues to climb and currently tests the channel top drawn from Nov 8 low – seen at Y101.84 and already bulls are testing above. Initial res now seen at Y101.97/102.08 – the lows of May 20 and 21. A break above here begins to test the highs of May 2013 which capped earlier this year, the key May 22 reversal high is at Y103.74 but resistance also seen ahead of here. Key support seen around Y100.47/50, the channel base and daily Tenkan.
R 4: Y103.74/78 Reversal high May 22, Reversal low June 2012
R 3: Y102.89 High May 21
R 2: Y102.50/53 Highs May 28, 29
R 1: Y101.97/102.08 Lows May 20, 21
Latest price: Y101.85
S 1: Y101.14 Low Nov 22
S 2: Y100.47/50 Nov 8 channel base, Daily Tenkan
S 3: Y99.93/99 38.2% of Y97.62-101.35, High Sept 12
S 4: Y99.38/43 21-DMA, Daily Kijun
EUR/JPY also continues to push higher rising above the short-term channel top but reaching highs not seen since 2009. Continued upward progress might meet the 61.8% of 2008 to 2012 move from Y169.96 to Y94.12 which is key resistance at Y140.99. However, some resistance is seen ahead of here at Y138.49, the Oct 2009 high – and Y139.22 – the Jun 2009 high. Studies are mainly overbought and failure at resistance could see sentiment flip to the downside.
R 4: Y139.22 Jun 2009 high
R 3: Y138.72 Aug 2009 high
R 2: Y138.41/49 3% 21-day MA envelope top, Oct 2009 high
R 1: Y137.98 Hourly high
Latest price: Y137.85
S 1: Y137.07 2% 21-day MA envelope top
S 2: Y136.89 Jul 2009 reversal high
S 3: Y136.40 High Nov 21
S 4: Y135.95 High Nov 20
