EUR/USD failed to retest the channel base as bulls yesterday were capped by the 5-DMA which is now initial resistance today at $1.3486. Daily studies still show a little upward progress but weekly studies are bearish, the downside yesterday met support at $1.3400 and ahead of here initial support is at $1.3442 – the Nov 4 low. A break below the $1.3400 level could initiate a move down to test the original Jul 2012 support line at $1.3075.
R 4: $1.3579 High Nov 20
R 3: $1.3553 Channel base from Jul 10 low
R 2: $1.3526/31 55-DMA, 21-DMA
R 1: $1.3486/87 Hourly high, 5-day moving average
Latest price: $1.3470
S 1: $1.3442 Low Nov 4
S 2: $1.3392/3400 100-DMA, High Aug 8
S 3: $1.3383 61.8% of $1.3105-1.3832
S 4: $1.3313 200-week moving average
GBP/USD climbs a little further despite the bearish divergence in weekly studies to close around the $1.6200 level – now initial resistance. A break above could see a run up to $1.6260 – the double-top of Oct 1 and 23 where strong downside pressure is expected. However, daily studies suggest they are near overbought and failure to break above adds risk lower. Key support around the 23.6% and 21-DMA at $1.6064/68 and below is daily Bolli base at $1.5913.
R 4: $1.6302/09 Reversal Highs May, Sep 2012
R 3: $1.6260 High Oct 1
R 2: $1.6223/25 Daily Bolli band top, High Oct 18
R 1: $1.6200/03 High Nov 21, High Sept 30
Latest price: $1.6196
S 1: $1.6146/49 5-DMA, High Nov 18
S 2: $1.6064/68 23.6% of $1.5429-1.6260, 21-DMA
S 3: $1.6045 55-day moving average
S 4: $1.5989/99 Lows Nov 14, Oct 30
USD/JPY posted a white marabuzo candle yesterday and now already testing resistance around Y101.39 – the 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79. Bulls are attempting to break and close above to test the channel top around Y101.61 while weekly studies rise, however daily and monthly studies are overbought adding risk lower. Initial support seen around Y101.00 which is also the hourly low, break below here tests the new 23.6% of Y97.62-101.35 seen at Y100.47.
R 4: Y102.50/53 Highs May 28, 29
R 3: Y101.97/102.08 Lows May 20, 21
R 2: Y101.53/61 Reversal high Jul 8, Rising channel top
R 1: Y101.35/39 Hourly high, 76.4% of Y103.74-93.79
Latest price: Y101.00
S 1: Y100.87/101.00 High Jul 19, Hourly low
S 2: Y100.47 23.6% of Y97.62-101.35
S 3: Y100.23/24 Daily Tenkan, Nov 8 channel base
S 4: Y99.93/99 38.2% of Y97.62-101.35, High Sept 12
EUR/JPY stormed higher yesterday to close above Y136.00, the highest since October 2009. Daily studies still in overbought territory and bears are now retesting the Y136.00 level and a close below could see daily studies reverse lower – further support at Y135.29 the 23.6% of Y131.22-135.55. However, a break above daily Bolli top at Y136.62 could see bulls stretch gains further as topside resistance is thin – Jul 2009 reversal high is at Y136.89.
R 4: Y138.19 3% 21-day MA envelope top
R 3: Y137.05 Rising channel top from Nov 8 low
R 2: Y136.85/89 2% 21-DMA env top, Jul 2009 reversal high
R 1: Y136.55/62 Hourly high, Daily Bollinger band top
Latest price: Y136.16
S 1: Y135.95 High Nov 20
S 2: Y135.29 23.6% of Y131.15-136.55
S 3: Y134.95/99 High Sept 19, High Oct 29
S 4: Y134.73/78 Daily Tenkan, Rising channel base
